Since the beginning of 2016, we have observed several key positive industry catalysts. Firstly, Tesla’s March 2016 Model 3 launch, boasting 325,000 orders and equating to US$14b+ of pre-sales in one week. Additionally, we've seen further commitments to building Lithium-ion battery mega-factories, with 12 mega-factories to be built by 2020. Lithium contract prices have also risen further, with large producers quoting realised prices up >25% to US$7,500/t+, suggesting our medium-term Lithium contract price forecast of US$9,000/t+ is conservative. The substantial rise in prices will incentivise new supply, with industry end users and offtakers likely to pursue greenfield projects. The potential for oversupply is a key risk consideration of ours and is dependent on committed and likely new projects both coming online on time AND at design capacity. History suggests that this is highly unlikely. In our April 2016 monthly, attached below, we discuss this along with our latest thoughts on our lithium holdings in the Paragon Fund.
By adopting a thematic-led, fundamentally-driven high-conviction strategy that can profit from rising and falling share prices, Paragon aims to provide its clients with excellent long term returns regardless of market performance.