"More bullish than ever" - the rise and rise of uranium and the ASX stocks to watch

AI, decarbonisation and the surge in electricity demand have collided over the past two years, forcing a rethink of how the world powers its economies. The nuclear reboot is now well underway, and critical to this is uranium.

To put the commodity into context, the International Atomic Energy Agency says:

Its special properties make uranium the main source of fuel for nuclear reactors — a chicken-egg sized amount of uranium fuel can provide as much electricity as 88 tonnes of coal.

According to Canaccord Genuity, market conditions strengthened materially into year-end, with a sharp acceleration in long-term contracting driving a breakout in term prices and lifting the spot price floor, setting the scene for a constructive 2026. 

Uranium futures rose past US$89 per pound this month, the highest level in 20 months.

To make sense of what’s driving the market and what investors should focus on from here, I spoke with Guy Keller, portfolio manager at Tribeca Investment Partners.

When Livewire last spoke to Keller in 2024, he pointed to uranium’s strong fundamentals and what he described as a “trickle of supply”. The obvious question today is whether he is still bullish.

“Even more so,” Keller said.

The bullish case for uranium

“2025 was a year of data centre hype and the power requirements, especially in the US - big deals done with some pretty household names,” said Keller. “But behind the scenes, part of the big concern has been whether the demand for uranium is sustainable.”

Keller’s confidence is less about short-term price moves and more about how the demand picture is evolving.

2025 saw significant regulatory debottlenecking in the US. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission now operates under an 18-month decision timeline for reactor approvals (where previously there had been no time-limit). The Department of Energy has been empowered to fund advanced and small modular reactor designs, and nuclear construction has been opened up to military bases and federal land.

Much of this occurred quietly while markets focused on AI stocks. But Keller believes the more important shift is structural.

“The reason I think 2026 is going to be a really transformative year is we’ve seen ‘bring your own generation’ as a catchphrase come out of the United States, with Trump’s backing.”

Tech companies have already locked in long-term power purchase agreements, extended reactor lives and uprated existing capacity. What they haven’t yet done, but are increasingly being pushed to do, is underwrite new build capacity themselves.

“That puts the construction risk back on the tech companies, not the utilities,” Keller said. “And that’s what changes everything.”

The supply and demand mismatch

Uranium is a market with very few buyers and very slow decision-making. There are only a handful of utilities globally, and procurement decisions are made years in advance. That structure has allowed a persistent supply deficit to build without obvious price signals.

Keller describes the imbalance as a primary mine-supply deficit that has existed since the early 2000s. “Right now, I see a 30–35 million pound primary mine supply deficit.”

That gap has been filled by secondary supply for years - inventories, stockpiles and fuel cycle by-products - but that buffer is finite.

In 2025, the industry attempted to respond through mine restarts. Around nine or 10 previously operating mines were brought back online. Almost all of them took longer, cost more and struggled with ramp-ups.

“For ASX investors, that was painful,” Keller said. “Paladin, Boss, Lotus - they all got hammered.”

Around 65 reactors currently under construction are expected to connect to the grid by 2030, adding roughly 38–40 million pounds of annual uranium demand. “If we don’t do anything between now and 2030, that 30 million pound deficit goes to 60,” Keller said.

The real price of uranium

One of Keller’s strongest arguments is that the uranium market is poorly understood because the price most investors look at isn’t the price that matters. “The observable price is not where the business is being done,” he said.

Spot prices include deliveries up to a year out, not prompt supply. The long-term “term price” is backward-looking and selectively reported.

Utilities, Keller argues, often report small volumes at headline prices while negotiating larger contracts with higher floors and ceilings that don’t show up in benchmarks. “There are no floors under $86 anymore,” he said. “We’re hearing ceilings of $140, $145.”

When carry costs and lead times are accounted for, Keller believes the implied forward price of uranium is already above US$100/lb. 

“The observable price goes over $100 this year,” he said.

Importantly, higher prices don’t break nuclear economics. Uranium represents roughly 8% of a reactor’s operating costs - unlike coal or gas, where fuel dominates. “Even $200 uranium does not bankrupt a nuclear power generator,” Keller said.

“Coal went from $80 to $500 and generation didn’t stop. Gas doubled and generation didn’t stop. Now we’re seeing the biggest electricity demand increase since the industrial revolution because of AI and data centres.”

What could derail the bull thesis for uranium?

Keller sees few obvious structural risks, but plenty of ways expectations could get ahead of reality. Macro risks like global conflict or deep recessions sit in black swan territory. For Keller, the nearer-term concern is the ability of the West to deliver large projects and the potential for delays.

“Potentially, the growth trajectory of nuclear could disappoint or take longer than expected. You need heavy forging, you need gigawatt-scale reactors, a lot of concrete, a lot of heavy industrial work. Maybe supply chains don’t keep up, which delays or slows things. That would be negative for uranium in the near to medium term. Or the uranium market gets ahead of itself, everyone rushes in expecting a huge increase in demand, things get overvalued, and then they correct."

"So I think it’s more about timing and expectations that could derail or delay the thesis. I don’t see anything structurally breaking it.”

ASX stocks to consider

For Australian investors, Keller says liquidity is a key consideration when approaching the uranium sector. On the ASX, he points to NexGen Energy and Paladin Energy as the most liquid uranium names available.

NexGen Energy (Canada) Ltd (ASX: NXG) is a Canadian company focused on delivering clean energy fuel for the future. The Company's flagship Rook I Project is being optimally developed into a low-cost producing uranium mine globally, incorporating the elite environmental and social governance standards.

“NexGen has an extraordinary asset and continues to drill phenomenal results, but the market hasn’t rewarded it yet,” Keller said.

Paladin Energy Limited (ASX: PDN) is a uranium production and exploration company with projects in Australia, Canada, and Africa, including the Langer Heinrich Mine in Namibia.

After a difficult restart phase, Keller says investors are gaining confidence that operational issues are being worked through. “Paladin clearing its operational issues has been important,” he said.

Peninsula Energy (ASX: PEN) has also attracted renewed interest and has re-rated, which Keller attributes largely to its US project exposure at a time when investors are increasingly focused on domestic and allied supply chains.

Beyond the larger names, Keller highlights African exposure as an area investors are watching closely. Companies such as Lotus Resources (ASX: LOT), Deep Yellow (ASX: DYL) and Bannerman Energy (ASX: BMN) operate in jurisdictions that are increasingly relevant to future supply, with Namibia standing out as a focal point.

For explorers, Keller draws a clear distinction between progress and speculation. “I don’t want uranium beta,” he said. “I want companies doing something.”

Explorers that simply move with sentiment can fall sharply when conditions turn. Keller prefers companies advancing projects and generating tangible news flow, pointing to Alligator Energy (ASX: AGE) as an example due to its field leach trials and ongoing development work.

How the Tribeca nuclear fund is positioning

Keller says Tribeca’s positioning reflects how the opportunity set has evolved.

Two years ago, around 90% of the fund was exposed directly to uranium miners. Today, roughly half the portfolio sits in what Keller describes as nuclear innovation, spanning the fuel cycle, power generation, and engineering and construction companies.

Geographically, “about 60–70% of our exposure has been offshore,” he said. “Offshore has been where the opportunity has been.”

Keller highlights Cameco (NASDAQ: CCJ) as a good example of this approach, offering exposure not just to uranium production but also to reactor technology through its ownership of Westinghouse.

Finally, Keller points to a behavioural difference investors should keep in mind.

“In North America, investors look at uranium through a nuclear and power lens, not just commodity pricing,” he said. “That’s why moves are bigger and faster.”

Australian investors, by contrast, often treat uranium like another commodity exposure. That divergence in mindset, Keller argues, drives very different capital flows and creates opportunity for investors who can navigate both markets with discipline.

“I get more nervous when things are up 40% in a month than during drawdowns,” he said. “The hardest thing is not selling too early.”

For investors wanting a deeper understanding of the uranium opportunity, the full interview transcript is well worth the read.