Lisa Sanderson

I agree with you that people who want to go on cruises again so soon are crazy. However, travelling overseas isn't always mindless consumerism. I think that it is, indeed, rarely mindless consumerism. There are many Australians who have family overseas and travel is necessary for them. Also, travellers experience other cultures, broaden their minds and see how people in other countries live. I do hope that you are not happy to go on business class holidays while wanting the 'plebs' to stay home?

Lisa Sanderson

Travelling isn't always mindless consumerism. Many Australians have family overseas. Also, travellers experience other cultures, broaden their minds and see the differences between other countries and Australia. Most overseas travellers think that Australia is wonderful compared with the others.

Michael Hill

Roger, thank you for this data and opinion. I hesitate to contradict without appropriate scholarship but my gut tells me it may not be that simple. Firstly, a surge of spending after lockdown would be expected but will it carry on? Secondly, any delay in returning to full employment and/or drop in house prices won't encourage spending. Thirdly, a glib survey result on one news channel last night said 87% surveyed would never take an ocean cruise in the future. Lastly, my experience of my parents indicates that their experience of the deprivations of the Depression shaped their saving and spending habits for their lifetime. Thank you for your always thoughtful musings, Michael

Roger Montgomery

Hi Lisa, I am not sure where in my article I said people who wanted to go on a cruise are crazy. I am sorry the article left you with that impression. All I wrote was "I imagine one of the first items to be ticked off the list after being cooped up at home for months will be a holiday". And it was the friend I spoke with who had hoped there would be a migration away from what he called mindless consumerism. At no point did I say going on a holiday was mindless consumerism. Wow, it really is amazing how far from intended is the message you took away from my piece.

Roger Montgomery

Thanks for sharing your thoughts Michael. I suspect the truth will be somewhere in between those two bookends. With respect to the short and medium term consumption picture (the article above refers to a longer term scenario when all restrictions are lifted including international borders) We anticipate a short-term increase in spending as a result of pent-up demand (Westfield Bondi foot Traffic up 325%w/w last Saturday) and post-lockdown promotions. Beyond that spike, discretionary spending is likely to fall as households manage significant declines in household cash income.