RBA gets housing wrong again as market booms

Christopher Joye

In The AFR I highlight how Australia's 3.5 year long housing boom---exemplified by the Sydney and Melbourne auction clearance rates soaring to 86% and 76% respectively on the weekend---is once again humiliating the RBA, which is losing credibility every time it cuts rates on the claim housing conditions are cooling or under control when this is not remotely true. Following the August cut the RBA told the community that: "dwelling prices have been rising only moderately over the course of this year" (wrong); "housing prices declined in most capital cities in July" (wrong); "auction clearance rates ... lower than a year ago" (wrong); and "the likelihood of lower interest rates exacerbating risks in the housing market has diminished" (wrong). The RBA also fabricated a completely BS reason as to why it suddenly junked its preferred daily "hedonic" house price index for its previously non-preferred, and much more prone to bias, "stratified median price" index. Check out my chart showing how Australia's house price-to-income ratio has hit a new record high of 5.7 times. Free (VIEW LINK)


Christopher Joye

Christopher Joye is Co-Chief Investment Officer of Coolabah Capital Investments, which is a leading active credit manager that runs over $2.2 billion in short-term fixed-income strategies. He is also a Contributing Editor with The AFR.

Expertise

banks interest rates rba housing

Comments

Please sign in to comment on this wire.
Avatar fallback

Sathyan Nair

Real estate, as an investable asset, is comparable to gold. Why is gold price going up? Compared to gold real estate is a far better investment. It is a standard phenomena that asset prices, and the gap between rich and poor go up during low interest rate periods.

Join the conversation