Australia has gone 104 quarters without an economic recession. The next best performance since 1970 of any other G10 economy (i.e. the key developed economies) is the Netherlands with an expansion of 103 quarters (from the early 1980s until 2008). That record long Dutch economic expansion was possible because of a strong long term rising house price trend and rising household indebtedness. Also of note, while the start of that Dutch recession was trigged by the GFC, Holland is yet to see its GDP output rise above its 2008 peak - i.e. its economy has stagnated ever since. Further illustrating the unusualness of the length of the current Australian economic expansion, the next best performance, amongst the G10, after Holland is Canada @ 82 quarters (although this is arguably significantly overstated), and then France and the UK (@ 68 and 67 quarters respectively). All of which adds support to the conclusions of our recent interview on Livewire arguing that an Aussie recession is due and as such Aussie rates are heading towards/close to zero.


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