Surprise ASX beats and misses, sleeper stocks and overrated/underrated

Please note this interview was filmed on 2 March 2026

Reporting season is serious business. Balance sheets are scrutinised, guidance is dissected, and every word from management is parsed for clues.

But once the dust settles, it’s also the perfect time for something a little more… candid.

In this Rapid Fire round, I put the Yarra Capital Management equities team on the spot. No long answers. No hedging. Just quick calls on the biggest surprises, the most disappointing results, the sleeper stocks investors might be missing, and a brand-new segment: Overrated or Underrated.

Representing the full market-cap spectrum were Marcus Ryan (broad caps), Michael Steele (small caps), and Joel Fleming (micro caps).

Here’s what caught their attention this reporting season.

The biggest surprise of reporting season

When it came to standout results, healthcare and mining services dominated the conversation.

For Marcus Ryan, the biggest surprise was Ramsay Health Care (ASX: RHC). The hospital operator delivered a strong result and the market responded enthusiastically.

“The Ramsay result was very strong,” Ryan said.

“The share price lifted 18% for the month and pleasingly it’s been driven by the core business: Australian private hospitals.”

He also sees a broader strategic shift underway.

“We continue to see the simplification story rolling out, more focus from the business, improving margins from its core operations, and exiting the troubled DeSante European hospital venture later this calendar year.”

In the small-cap space, Michael Steele pointed to a sector that has quietly been delivering strong numbers: mining services.

“In particular, Imdex (ASX: IMD) and Monadelphous Group (ASX: MND), with results more than 10% ahead of consensus.”

With resource activity remaining robust, companies that help miners drill, build and operate projects continue to benefit.

The biggest misses

No reporting season is complete without a few disappointments. For Steele, the biggest market reaction came from Zip Co (ASX: ZIP).

“The share price was down 34% on the day of the result.”

But unlike many investors who fled the stock, Steele sees opportunity.

“Our view is that’s creating a compelling opportunity. Strong growth is still there, and the valuation is attractive.”

In micro caps, Joel Fleming nominated Alliance Aviation (ASX: AQZ) as his biggest disappointment.

“Really disappointing result,” he said.

“They’ve got new planes and a big opportunity, but they’re contracting them out at rates that are just far from acceptable.”

Sleeper stocks the market may be missing

Every reporting season produces a few companies that quietly deliver strong numbers but fail to get much attention.

For Fleming, one such stock is MLG Oz (ASX: MLG).

“I really like MLG. This is a logistics business focused on Western Australian miners", said Fleming, adding that he believes the operating backdrop is favourable.

“If you can get it out of the ground, you’re making good money.”

MLG’s established asset base also provides a competitive edge.

“They’ve got a lot of sunk capital out there. They’re good at what they do and we think the growth trajectory has been underrepresented by the market.”

Ryan’s sleeper pick came from the property sector: Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR). Despite a solid result and positive outlook, the stock lagged the market.

“The stock actually underperformed the market over the month by about 2%,” Ryan said.

But he sees upside for patient investors. “It’s trading about 12% below NTA and we think NTA will rise". He adds that development earnings could also improve, whilst the office portfolio remains resilient.

“It’s one of the best office portfolios in the country. About 95% full, with only 12% of leases expiring over the next two and a half years.”

One word to describe the season

I asked the panel to sum up reporting season in just one word. Ryan attempted a diplomatic “selectively optimistic”, but eventually settled on:

“Positive.”

Fleming was even more succinct.

“Optimistic.”

And Steele landed in a similar place.

“Positive.”

His reasoning was simple.

“There’s a number of compelling opportunities that have emerged during reporting season.”

Where those opportunities are emerging

For Steele, the biggest opportunity today lies in the small-cap market, where many stocks have fallen dramatically, despite still growing.

“We’ve got a large number of growth companies down more than 45% from their 12-month highs.”

For long-term investors willing to stomach volatility, he believes the risk-reward is becoming increasingly attractive.

The biggest risk before next reporting season

While opportunities exist, Fleming warned investors not to ignore macro risks.

“Things change pretty quickly.”

In particular, he pointed to geopolitical tensions and their potential economic ripple effects; “Current events in the Middle East could mean increasing fuel costs and supply chain disruptions.”

Those pressures could flow through to inflation and interest rates.

“The RBA hasn’t been shy about talking about the risks it sees.”

With markets sitting near record highs, any shift in the rate outlook could quickly alter sentiment toward risk assets.

Overrated or underrated?

We wrapped up the discussion with a new rapid-fire segment: Overrated or Underrated.

Some of the responses were blunt:

1. Large-cap banks

Marcus Ryan: Overrated

“With the sector rallying another 14% over the month and trading on a 60% PE premium to history, we don’t think the 9% earnings growth is sustainable.”

2. Small-cap gold developers

Michael Steele: Overrated

“They’ve had a massive period of outperformance and valuations are stretched. There’s a lot of risk around the capital expenditure to bring the mines to market.”

3. Pre-profit micro-cap medtech

Joel Fleming: Overrated

Excitement can build quickly, but execution is difficult.

“When it comes to the rubber hitting the road, it’s often a lot more challenging than investors expect.”

4. Data centres and AI infrastructure

Marcus Ryan: Underrated

At least the high-quality operators.

“If they’ve got strong customer relationships, contracts and funding in place, we see opportunities.”

5. Uranium stocks

Michael Steele: Overrated

“Share prices have massively outperformed and they’re capitalising uranium prices well above the current spot level.”

6. Micro-cap critical minerals and gold developers

Joel Fleming: Underrated

But only if investors are selective.

“If you can bring a good project to market, you’re going to do pretty well.”

Until next time

Reporting season may be over, but the debate will rage on.

Between healthcare simplification stories, mining services strength, beaten-down growth stocks and an ongoing tug-of-war between hype and fundamentals, there is no shortage of opportunities for investors willing to dig beneath the headlines.

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