Sustained low rates to support equities
Investors spent most of 2015 worrying about when US interest rates would rise. Now they have, the key question has changed. What we need to know now is how quickly rates will normalise, the trajectory of lift-off and where they will ultimately end up. The Federal Reserve and investment markets disagree on this, with investors taking a much more cautious view than the rate-setters. I think the markets will be proved right and Janet Yellen will take her time. That will provide a support to equities, which remains my asset class of choice. The major asset class I am most worried about is fixed income, and not because of rising interest rates, although these won’t help. The bigger concern is credit quality, as companies have geared up their balance sheets in an environment of super-cheap money, and poor liquidity in a bond market no longer well-served by the investment banks. If there is a move to the exits, investors could find them crowded. Find out what’s in store for 2016: (VIEW LINK)
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