Technicals - Dow Jones - at same overbought levels as in 2007 and 1999

Angela Mangan

QMG Pty Ltd

Although no two market cycles are the same, there are clear parallels from a technical perspective between where the Dow Jones is currently located compared to the situation in 2007 (and 1999) - i.e at the same overbought levels on a RSI basis, and at the upper end of trend channels.  Therefore, the Dow is currently located in a critical technical phase given what followed the previous times when it was similarly positioned.
The Dow is now located at the most overbought level on a momentum / RSI basis since 2007, and is at those same overbought levels, which is reason for caution relating to the sustainability of the current rally.  Again the index was similarly positioned in 1999 (as highlighted by red arrows on chart below).
However, it does need to be emphasised that the RSI is not a timing or turning point indicator - it flags overbought situations, but does not provide an indication of when this overbought situation is likely to correct.
A technical top formation is the requirement to indicate that the corrective phase has commenced and to generate a technical sell signal,
The coming days are shaping up as being significant in terms of whether the potential emerges for a technical top.


Angela Mangan
Technical Analyst
QMG Pty Ltd

Angela has over 30 years experience in the technical analysis field. She provides technical analysis coverage of major Australian and global stocks / key markets, including provision of a bespoke technical service to wholesale clients.

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