The Match Out: Resources lift the ASX to a 5th straight gain, AGL guidance ahead of market

The daily Match Out for Friday 16 June with James Gerrish of Market Matters.
James Gerrish

Market Matters

The ASX finished the shortened week on the front foot today with healthcare being the only sector to fall on Friday’s session. The index strength came on the back of gains in energy and materials as commodities caught a bid largely thanks to growing confidence in stimulus in China. Coal stocks were a notable winner in the session, continuing the rally seen this month with Newcastle Coal futures trading more than 3.5% higher today. Tech and Financials also joined in the rally that saw 6 of the 11 sectors up more than 1% today. Today’s move added to gains earlier in the week with the ASX200 up +1.81%/+128pts for the 4 sessions.

  • The ASX 200 finished up +75pts/ +1.06% at 7251
  • The Energy sector (+3.55%) was the best on ground today, followed by Tech (+1.50%), Discretionary (+1.22%) Utilities (+1.20%), Financials (+1.11%) and Materials (+1.06) being the 6 sectors to add more than 1%.
  • Healthcare (-0.09%) was the only sector lower today, further compounding a soft week for the sector.
  • AGL Energy (ASX: AGL) +9.73% hit two-year highs on positive FY23 and 24 guidance. More on the stock we own below.
  • De Grey (ASX: DEG) +6.67% rallied following a news article saying it had found an extra $3b in gold. The company poured water on the news, saying the market should wait for a resource upgrade next quarter to extrapolate recent drilling results from their WA gold asset.
  • ANZ (ASX: ANZ) +0.65% has agreed with the Qld Government, committing to a tech hub as part of the deal to buy Suncorp’s bank. The ACCC is expected to make a determination on July 28.
  • Iron Ore was up marginally in Asia, +0.3% with BHP, FMG and RIO all up smalls.
  • Gold was marginally higher today, hanging around $US1962/oz
  • Asian stocks were very strong into the weekend. The Nikkei was up +0.66%, overshadowed by the Hang Seng (+1.32%).
  • US Futures are pointing to flat start tonight

ASX 200 Chart

AGL Energy (AGL) $10.60

AGL +9.73%: Held an investor day and upgraded both FY23 and FY24 earnings guidance materially above consensus and the stock rallied accordingly, although it saw some profit taking into the close. For FY24, they have guided to underlying EBITDA of between $1,875 and $2,175 million; and underlying profit after tax between $580 and 780 million. 

A big range but at the midpoint of $680m that’s 16% above the current consensus. On the flip side, they did tweak their dividend guidance down, now targeting a payout of 50-75% of underlying profit, which should still have them yielding ~5.5% fully franked whilst also being able to take advantage of the energy transition.

Sectors this week

Stocks this week

Broker Moves

  • Region Group Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT A$2.45
  • Abacus Property Raised to Outperform at Macquarie; PT A$2.90
  • DGL Group Cut to Hold at Morgans Financial Limited; PT A$1
  • Charter Hall Group Cut to Reduce at CLSA; PT A$11.35
  • Panoramic Resources Cut to Speculative Buy at Canaccord
  • Eagers Rated New Neutral at Evans & Partners Pty Ltd; PT A$13.11
  • PWR AU Rated New Positive at Evans & Partners Pty Ltd; PT A$3.35
  • Nickel Industries Raised to Outperform at Macquarie; PT A$1.10
  • Santos Raised to Buy at Citi; PT A$8
  • Johns Lyng Cut to Neutral at Evans & Partners Pty Ltd; PT A$5.88

Today's Market Movers


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James Gerrish
Portfolio Manager
Market Matters

James is the Lead Portfolio Manager & primary author at Market Matters, a digital advice & investment platform with over 2500 members that offers real market intel & portfolios open for investment. He is also a Senior Portfolio Manager at Shaw and...

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