The story of the night has been the diverging paths of the USD. On one hand the USD lost ground against the EUR and GBP, but rallied with strength against the CAD and AUD, as well as certain emerging market currencies. GBP/USD broke out above the recent high of 1.6605 and the underlying strength is there for all to see. Picking tops is ill advised, that is until we see signs of exhaustion, but my feeling is this pair heads to 1.6700 in the short-term. Many investment banks will look at the difference between UK two-year gilts and US two-year treasuries and the wider the yield spread the more compelling it is to hold a currency. Last night we saw the spread blow out to eighteen basis points, which shows that the move higher in GBP was supported by favouring economics and therefore fundamentals.
good call Chris - the resilience it's showing vs commodity currencies not unexpected with the China PMI but portends another year of dissapointing GDP growth