'War and Markets', by Saxo Bank Chief Economist Steen Jakobsen

'War and Markets', by Saxo Bank Chief Economist Steen Jakobsen. The price of energy is the simplest way to 'measure' geopolitical risk according to Jakobsen, as it is effectively a tax on the economy when high, and a discount when low. Jakobsen ponders the growing risk of wars and their impact on macro outlook, and warns of less growth and certainty in markets: The escalation of turmoil in the world is yet to play a role for the market, but be warned: everything economic has a delayed reaction of nine to twelve months - whenever there is an action there will be a reaction. If the present state of alertness continues through the summer you can bet on higher energy prices having a serious impact on not only world growth but also on markets. But don't ever forget that the real losers are the individual families losing loved ones. (VIEW LINK)