2018 has proven to be a tumultuous year for the Australian equity market. Key themes driving the market’s decline and heightened volatility have included the increase in government regulations, escalation in trade wars and attempts to control the global oil surplus. Show More
As we close the door on a difficult 2018 in equity markets, attention turns to the year ahead. In our inaugural Livewire contribution, we thought we’d introduce what we think is potentially one of 2019’s top microcap ideas. Show More
The silver lining of the weak commodity prices between 2011 and 2016 was that many companies within the natural resources sector were forced to become much more disciplined in their operations and expenditure. This shift ultimately left companies in far better shape to capitalise on opportunities, while ensuring more stability... Show More
2019 is just a few months away. So when we sat down with Natalie Tam, Investment Director at Aberdeen Standard Investments, we took the opportunity to ask her what she thought the key market issues could be next year. She touches on 5 key issues including the prospect of a... Show More
In the electricity sector, new technologies and policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions introduce the risk that existing assets may be rendered redundant. This paper reviews the stranded asset risk for the listed players AGL and Origin Energy. Show More
We conducted a cross-asset scenario analysis on potential outcomes from the upcoming midterm elections in the United States. Using both a macro and a bottom-up approach, our base case was for a Democratic House of Representatives and a Republican Senate, but we also considered the possibility of a sweep in... Show More
Three of the tailwinds for ASX investors across the past decade — policy with respect to interest rates, trade, and regulation — have turned into headwinds. While profit may be hit, it is also likely that multiples will revert to something more like normal. Show More
With the 2020s just 15 months away, now is a great time to take a step back and think about the long-term. 10 years ago, the top 10 companies in the world were dominated by energy companies, and Chinese companies. Today, seven of the top 10 companies are technology companies. “When... Show More
With a 38% increase, energy was the best performing sector on the ASX last financial year. In this short video, Stephane Andre, Principal at Alphinity Investment Management, outlines the fundamentals behind the strong oil price, and which two energy companies his fund continues to hold. Key points The oil market... Show More
"We no longer doubt that the US administration’s proposals signal the direction of trade policy. An escalatory cycle of protectionist actions, not just rhetoric, has begun and will continue. It’s another reason why pressure should continue in risk markets, which now must eat their US policy vegetables after feasting on... Show More
In March 2017 Ben Griffiths found himself in a deeply uncomfortable position. For the first time since inception 15 years ago his small cap portfolio was badly lagging the benchmark. Sentiment had violently swung against his stocks and Griffiths was facing a tough decision – hold the current course or... Show More
This week the "Chart of the Week" looks at the energy sector of the S&P500 and specifically how it fits in in terms of market capitalization weight and share of total earnings across the index. Simply put, energy stocks have fallen to the lowest market cap weighting since late 2003... Show More
In the context of the Sir John Templeton quote “… Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die of euphoria …” we are clearly still in the optimistic phase. Show More
I’m going out on a limb and calling it now: 2018 will be the year of the unloved asset. In particular, investors in the oil and the energy sector will be well placed for a reasonably strong bounce back in the first half of this year, a shift that’s already... Show More
There are countless theories about the best way for investors to beat the market. Troy Angus, Head of Large Caps at Paradice Investment Management, has been able to consistently beat the market for over a decade and believes he has identified four key criteria that consistently lead to outperformance. Show More
Electricity generation in Europe is undergoing a major transformation. Many investors think that the “new world” (i.e. renewables, batteries and smart grids) is going to wipe out the “old world” (i.e. centralised baseload generated from nuclear and fossil fuels). Whilst we do accept that there will be a transition we... Show More
Whilst we don’t see a return of Santos to a share price above $10 anytime soon, a level seen only a few years ago, we believe long term investors should be thinking of accumulating troubled situations such as this for a turnaround. Show More
Local market bounced back after Friday’s bashing. Started positive before investors took profit in the last few hours. European markets were negative while US and Asian markets were directionless. China data was stable without being special while local housing data was weak and private credit data was solid. July count... Show More
Don’t let some of the commentary from the Energy Markets 2016 conference fool you; the ‘death spiral’ remains a key risk to energy network companies. With the cost of solar with battery storage rapidly decreasing, opting out of the grid has never been more attractive. Show More
“Show me the incentive and I’ll show you the outcome” ... Charlie Munger’s quip is typically insightful and relevant to many of the ructions currently facing the domestic economy, including a number of key sectors like real estate, consumer discretionary, telecommunications and energy, all of which will be examined in... Show More