After spending a week in Moscow, in my observation, Chinese tourists were everywhere in the city while it is very common for Russians to take Mandarin lessons at universities. Since the dissolution of territorial disputes between China and Russia during the Jiang Zemin’s era, the relations between the two countries... Show More
Local market was started positive before falling and then making a decent recovery on average China inflation data to finish mainly flat. Tomorrow is the last day of trading before we go into a four-day long weekend…not sure investors want to leave global markets open to US/Russia/Syria/China/North Korea for that... Show More
Russia is ordering all of its officials to fly any relatives home who are living abroad amid heightened tensions over the prospect of global war, it has been claimed. Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev has also warned that the world is at a 'dangerous point' due to rising tensions between... Show More
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Gold prices rose overnight, with the yellow metal sitting at just over USD $1200oz. A dovish FOMC (who doffed their cap to the IMF) plus concerns over Greece are supporting bullion, though this could be another false start for a market thats largely traded sideways for 18 months in USD. Show More
Russian authorities have tried a lot of measures recently to slow the depreciation of the currency and nothing seems to have worked and the rate rise by the Russia central bank smells of desperation. The move was driven by the need to limit the risks of devaluation and inflation, with... Show More
Rouble trouble: oil and Russia's economy. Oil will be the centre of attention again today: yesterday the price of a barrel of Brent crude dipped below $68, a five-year low, before rallying to more than $72. As oil gyrated, so did Russia's currency: at one point on Monday the rouble... Show More
The slide in oil prices has become a crash. Brent crude will start the day at around $70 a barrel, the lowest in more than four years. Exporters are feeling the pain. According to Deutsche Bank, seven of OPEC's 12 members do not balance their budgets when prices are below... Show More
Stagflation update, Oil weakness, Russia and China USD avoidance. As promised, we are keeping a steady update on the trend in our global inflation analysis. Lo and behold, the trend resumes and disinflation signals return. Our leading indicator has crossed below our longer term inflation indicator and on the way lower... Show More
Is it time to go all in Chinese equities? - Peter Garnry, Saxo Bank Head of Equity Strategy. With PMI figures in China hitting an 18-month high, Saxo Bank Head of Equity Strategy Peter Garnry considers whether it is time for investors to be 'all in' on Chinese equities. Garnry... Show More
Sanctions will tip Russia into recession, says Peter Garnry, Saxo Bank Head of Equity Strategy. In the aftermath of the Malaysian Airlines atrocity, the EU is likely to follow with some type of new sanctions against Russia, and Garnry believes these will tip Russia close to recession. Garnry said: If... Show More
'War and Markets', by Saxo Bank Chief Economist Steen Jakobsen. The price of energy is the simplest way to 'measure' geopolitical risk according to Jakobsen, as it is effectively a tax on the economy when high, and a discount when low. Jakobsen ponders the growing risk of wars and their... Show More
China wins in the long term and Russia in the short term, says Ole Hansen Saxo Bank Head of Commodity Strategy The USD 400 billion gas deal struck between Russia and China is said to be signed, but what do we know about it? Saxo Bank Head of Commodity Strategy Ole... Show More
Russia has sold 20% of its US treasuries: 'Back in mid-March, there was a brief scare after the start of the Ukraine conflict, when Fed custody holdings plunged by a record $104.5 billion (if promptly bouncing back the following week), leading many to believe that Russia may have dumped its... Show More
Kerr Neilson, the MD and co-founder of Platinum Asset Management continues to increase exposure to tech stocks - this time it's in Russia. The hedge fund Platinum has just under $6 billion in assets in global equities, half of which is in tech stocks. The most recent 13F from the... Show More
Putin Says Sanctions Jeopardise U.S., EU Energy Deals. Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that further economic sanctions over the Ukraine crisis may lead Russia to reconsider participation by U.S. and European Union companies in energy and other key industries. Sanctions between powerful countries are high-stakes poker with a considerable... Show More
Western governments and their populations would understandably like this uncomfortable problem with Vladimir Putin to go away. It will not, in all probably, particularly if the sanctions are insufficient and therefore ineffective. Putin will feel confident that he has won the last round. Tactically, he is now lowering tensions to... Show More
A free-talking El-Erian, Post-Pimco via FT: Tranquil markets underprice geopolitical risk. Markets have been sanguine about geopolitical risk for several years now, a phenomenon illustrated by the relaxed approach they have taken to Ukraine's crisis. There are understandable reasons for this, but contrary to a popular saying, this could well... Show More
Overnight Update: The US stock market rose, building on the previous day's rally. Treasury prices rose, on track for their sixth day of gains in seven sessions. Data presented an optimistic outlook on construction of new homes, and inflation edged up a notch. The Australian dollar strengthened after its central... Show More
Vladimir Putin is almost as popular as Kim Jong Un. The impressive bounce in precious metals continued into the end of last week, with gold prices trading above USD $1380 an ounce. The situation in Crimea, more questionable US economic data, more bullish futures positioning and a positive technical set... Show More