Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 13 March 2022

Callum Thomas

Topdown Charts

The Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm is a selection of 10 charts which I hand pick from around the web and post on Twitter. The purpose of this post is to add extra color and commentary around the charts.

The charts focus on the S&P500 (US equities); and the various forces and factors that influence the outlook - with the aim of bringing insight and perspective.


1. Speculative Futures Positioning: Always a lot of if's and but's when it comes to speculative futures positioning indicators like this (e.g. it might not be representative, or could reflect the other leg of some hedging or long/short trade, etc).

BUT, one thing is very clear -- this is not a picture of capitulation.

More evidence for: "feel kinda bearish, but still long".

Source: @CameronDawson


2. Midterm Malaise: One for the "this is normal and healthy" bucket...

It is not unusual to see a large pullback during mid-term years... (and in that destruction the creation of opportunities regularly happens).

Source: @RyanDetrick


3. The Stockmarket *is* The Economy: Recessions expose the weak spots, destroy unsustainable models, and crush earnings. How this current stockmarket correction resolves (e.g. down then back to bull, vs down and down into bear market mode) will depend powerfully on whether a recession occurs.

And it seems kinda likely, by my read -

Source: @MichaelAArouet


4. Bear Market History: Another table, basically a Friendly Reminder of what bear markets look like. (p.s. I wouldn't call COVID-19 a bear as such, it was a crash... bears are more sustained downturns in price which tend to be driven/reinforced by crappy macro etc -- rather than "dOwN 20% iS a bEaR mArKet!").

Source: @gnoble79


5. Regime Change? "Downside Volatility" is starting to dominate... a common feature of bear markets.

Source: @exposurerisk


6. Oil Shock: Just as central banks were already beginning to take the punchbowl away, oil comes in and dumps all over the earnings/economic outlook. To be absolutely clear (and the chart kind of speaks for itself): the surge in oil prices is a headwind to economic growth, earnings, and the stockmarket.

Source: @MrBlonde_macro


7. Energy Tho: Albeit, energy is of course a very different story.

(“stockmarket” vs market of stocks)

Source: @mark_ungewitter


8. European Equity Exodus: European equities (understandably given direct geopolitical risk, not to mention indirect/direct economic + financial spillover risk) have been *heavily* sold... much much worse than during the pandemic panic.

Source: @MikeZaccardi


9. Also European Equities... Pockets of value out there, especially relative value.

Source: @ayeshatariq


10. The Theme Age.

Source: @jessefelder


Thanks for reading!

Callum Thomas

Founder and Head of Research at Topdown Charts

Any feedback, questions and views are welcome in the comment section below.

Never miss an insight

Enjoy this wire? Hit the ‘like’ button to let us know. Stay up to date with my content by hitting the ‘follow’ button below and you’ll be notified every time I post a wire.

Not already a Livewire member? Sign up today to get free access to investment ideas and strategies from Australia’s leading investors.


Callum Thomas
Head of Research
Topdown Charts

Callum is Head of Research at Topdown Charts. Topdown Charts is a chart-driven macro research house covering global Asset Allocation and Economics.

I would like to

Only to be used for sending genuine email enquiries to the Contributor. Livewire Markets Pty Ltd reserves its right to take any legal or other appropriate action in relation to misuse of this service.

Personal Information Collection Statement
Your personal information will be passed to the Contributor and/or its authorised service provider to assist the Contributor to contact you about your investment enquiry. They are required not to use your information for any other purpose. Our privacy policy explains how we store personal information and how you may access, correct or complain about the handling of personal information.