Why Nvidia is the next Nvidia

This panel was filmed on 9 September 2025.

With how quickly it has come to dominate the discourse, it's easy to forget that AI as we understand it today is still very much in its infancy. 

And it's this fact that should inform our investing approach, says Munro Partner's Qiao Ma.

"This is year three of AI. And year three of the internet era, at that point, 1993, Google was not born. Facebook was 10 years away from being born. When we're thinking about mobile, when we're doing year three of the iPhone, Uber was not born. Spotify was not born."

Anyone wanting to ride the AI narrative may be better served sitting on their hands. 

"I genuinely believe that 10 years from now in 2035, a lot of the companies we're sitting here talking about they have not been born yet," she says. 

But there's one notable exception. 

"It is way too early to call the NVIDIA of the next decade. This decade is going to be the Nvidia decade."

Having already carved out a dominant share of the all-important GPU market, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is now looking to become the foundational platform for the next generation of AI companies.

"I'm reasonably confident these company will be born using the Nvidia software as the development tool," said Qiao Ma. "I'm reasonably confident that the developers of these companies will use NVIDIA's hardware as the foundation."

"Nvidia has laid out this incredible foundation, and the soil from which a lot of these flowers eventually blossom, at year three of a 15-to-20 year cycle."

It positions Nvidia as the Google of the AI age, already leagues ahead of the competition this early into the race. Any company trying to play catch up with Nvidia is at such a distinct disadvantage it's hard to see how it's possibly achievable.

Qiao Ma makes the analogy of trying to race against Usain Bolt when he's already a kilometre ahead of you.

"Nvidia is on a one-year cadence. No one in the semiconductor hardware industry was ever on a one-year cadence. It takes about three-to-five years to design the chip, get the ecosystem to buy in, tape it out, get TSMC to make it and eventually test it. It is a very lengthy process, and Nvidia now come up with a new chip every single year."

"For the industry that's trying to compete with Nvidia, that genuinely feels like someone is already miles ahead of you and still running faster than you, and that's why it's so hard to catch him."

"The Nvidia of the next decade is still Nvidia." - Qiao Ma

From a fundamentals perspective, the outlook is similarly-rosy, she says. 

"With all that growth ahead, you are not even paying that much for it. There is a clear line of sight just to form what they've had in the backlog to get to $10 of earnings and the stock is $168. 

"So for those mathematical wizards, that is less than 17 times price-to-earnings for one of the best growers in large and small caps."