Why the "Sell America" hype was only ever just that

Wealth management is a broad business - much more than just investments - one where we focus on client goals, often on family plans, and sometimes on legacy. Much of those goals, plans, and legacies are crafted through investment management, and one reason investors pay professional investment managers is because we are supposedly less susceptible to the “noise v substance” issue. That is, there’s always a lot of bluster, and a lot of talk, and a lot of narrative in the investing space, but as alleged professionals, we’re supposed to be able to discern the wheat from the chaff, and to help investors navigate these potential (likely??) distractions.

Early this year, one narrative took a firm grip on the media, financial and otherwise:

US exceptionalism was dead.

The script was consistent: the US dollar was finished as the global reserve currency, US stocks would roll over, and US Treasury yields would spike. The knock-on effects for the market-driving (and long duration) AI sector were supposed to be seismic.

The January headlines flashed across the press:

• “5 reasons why ‘Sell America’ will define 2026” – Investing.com
• “Sell America is back” – ADM Investor Services
• “Trump’s tariff threats spark new fears of ‘Sell America’ trade” – Politico
• "Dollar extends losses as geopolitics revive Sell America trade" - WMBD Radio

In reality, this was likely a standard portfolio rebalancing away from US overweights rather than a wholesale abandonment. But overlaid with the geopolitical landscape, the narrative took hold with a certain level of glee as US markets dipped.

During this 250th American year, was the American experiment finally going to cave, and at the worst possible time?

It wasn't. It never was.

And until growth, earnings, and innovation stop being the primary metrics for valuation, it won’t. 

That’s where America leads, has led for over three decades, and will continue to lead for the foreseeable future.

To be clear, this isn't personal financial advice that you should put 100% of your assets into the US. It's simply a data-backed observation that should be considered as part of a holistic asset allocation strategy across an entire balance sheet.

But when it comes to long term growth, there are very few engines like US markets.

Had you been swallowed by the panic and "sold America" in early 2026, how would that have worked out for you? Let’s check the scoreboard across four key metrics.

1. The S&P 500

The S&P 500 started the year at 6,858.47. As the panic peaked, it fell 7.50% to hit a bottom of 6,343.72 on March 30. That was it — that was the big crash. At the time of writing, it sits at 7,482.71. That’s a 17.95% rebound from the bottom and up 9.31% year-to-date (YTD).

Verdict: Strike one, on the "sell America" trade.

2. The Nasdaq 100

The tech-heavy index started the year at 25,206.17, bottoming out down 8.94% on March 30 at 22,953.38. Today, it’s at 29,252.56 — up 27.44% from its low and 14.88% YTD. Even with both indices moving sideways for the last two months, a 50/50 blend still leaves you up double-digits at mid-year.

Verdict: Strike two.

3. US 10-Year Treasury Yields

On day 1 of 2026, the US 10-year Treasury Yield closed at 4.187%. As the “Sell America” trade was in full-swing, it peaked at 4.440% on 27 Mar 2026. Then it kept going, all the way to 4.667% on 19 May 2026. As I write this, we’re at 4.569%.

Interestingly, looking at calendar 2025, we started at 4.596%, it fell to below 4.00% a few times during the year, and peaked at 4.510% on 2 Jun 2025. Similar spreads to this YTD.

Verdict: No clear signal, but equally clearly, it's no disaster.

4. The US Dollar (DXY)

This is my favourite because it’s the one many people point to when they want to tell you how “weak” America is, given its direct comparison to the Aussie dollar.

At the end of 2025, the USD index (often called the “Dixie”) stood at 98.28. For context, that’s a 3-and-a-half year sideways move, although it was mainly above that mark over that period, with a peak of 113.31 on 10 Oct 2022. There was a secondary peak of 109.65 on 6 Jan 2025, and then a pretty steep swing down to a lower high of 100.23 on 19 Nov 2025. Then a subsequent low of 96.22 on 27 Jan 2026. That’s the “Sell America” trade, right there - the DXY was down 4.00%. That doesn’t sound like much but in exchange rates, that’s a decent move. For perspective, when the Aussie dollar went on a mad rampage earlier this year through to May, and it was a mad rampage, it rose 8.32%. Not 20%, not 30%, exchange rates don’t move like that unless something structural is happening.

And that’s my point: there was no structural USD move going on here, because nothing is, or was, fundamentally wrong. Warren Buffett was right – in the short term, markets are a voting machine but in the long term, they are a weighing machine. The DXY is at 100.93 today, which is almost 5 years sideways, and up 2.70% YTD.

Verdict: Strike three. You’re out.

The Price of Independence

The "Sell America" panic wasn't a referendum on US fundamentals; it was a fire sale on the most productive, and most accessible, liquid assets in the world.

Think about the macro backdrop: the US capture of Nicolas Maduro, Donald Trump’s typical bluster, Israel expanding focus to southern Lebanon, the outbreak of war in Iran, and shifting AI sentiment. On paper, it looked like a perfect storm of bad news.

The media ran with it because they sell clicks. But professional investors should have known better. Most did.

So why did some pros play along?

Some genuinely believed the sky was falling. But for many others, noise is good for business. Noise creates activity. When professional service providers (professional investors included) are compensated regardless of the client’s ultimate financial outcome, anxiety becomes a product. Fear drives transactions, product sales, and sub-optimal human behaviour. Greed does too.

This is why true independence matters most during periods of high stress and market flux. And during the noise.

When the crowd was busy selling America, the smart move was to filter out that noise and buy the dip.

I hope you managed to take the long view and to pick up some cheap merchandise during the panic. I know I did.

Good luck out there.