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Macro

Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

Poor Australian productivity – why all the fuss? And what to do about it?

Wages, inflation, and living standards hinge on one thing: productivity. The answer? Tough economic reform.
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

Cross-country risk pricing is normalising, undermining Australian momentum performance

Momentum investing looks less rewarding as equity risk normalises across U.S. and EMs, with implications for style rotation and Australia.
WLE
Matthew Haupt
Wilson Asset Management
Macro

Is the RBA forward-looking like the ECB and the Fed?

We test the accuracy of RBA forecasts versus the market & how the RBA and its peers set interest rates using recent history and forecasts.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Trump's criticism of Powell creates renewed threats to the Fed’s independence

President Donald Trump’s longstanding criticism of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell—ironically, someone Trump appointed during his first...
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
Macro

Japan versus the world - why bond markets have never been more exciting

Rising JGB yields have stirred global concerns, but stable inflation and rates suggest positive returns remain likely.
Chris Iggo
AXA Investment Managers
Macro

June labour market data puts pressure on the RBA to cut in August, but …

Weak June labour data raise odds of an August RBA cut, but policy rules suggest cash rate is already too low.
Damien Boey
Wilson Asset Management
Macro

Mid-year outlook for 2025: Make your own luck

Seneca said, ‘Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.’ H1 2025’s Regime Change requires building your own luck.
Henry McVey
KKR Australia
Macro

Chinese growth is decent, but could be a lot better

Iron-ore outlook steadied by talk of surprise property-support meeting and PBoC balance-sheet pickup; watch credit impulse for confirmation.
WLE
Matthew Haupt
Wilson Asset Management
Macro

The return of the term premium

The return of the term premium, which could increase given the deteriorating fiscal outlook, points to the risk of higher US bond yields.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

China – the tariff threat, structural challenges and implications for Australia

Australia is now less sensitive to China, but Chinese growth is likely to be enough to keep the iron ore price elevated.
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

The ‘Gini’ is out of the bottle

Rising inequality is distorting markets, powering US exceptionalism, and setting the stage for potential volatility ahead.
Chris Iggo
AXA Investment Managers
Macro

June CPI data shows tariff impacts materialising

The June CPI report came in as expected, bringing the annual headline increase to 2.7%, a tick-up from last month’s 2.4% reading. Meanwhile, core inflation rose 2.9%,...
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
Macro

Should we be more worried about U.S. growth or inflation? Or neither?

Explore U.S. economic trends: growth uncertainty and rising inflation risks.
Arif Husain
T. Rowe Price
Macro

The fiscal implications of Trump's Big Beautiful Bill

The passage of the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill” will, by itself, boost growth over the medium term. However, offsetting the extent of any boost will be ever-changing...
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
Macro

Markets are shaken, not stirred as we head into Q3

We expect to see core CPI rising to around 3.5% by end-2025 before settling down - fiscal policymakers will need to tread carefully.
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
Macro

The end of the 90 day US tariff reprieve is over for now

The U.S. administration has decided to delay its self-imposed deadline for implementing reciprocal tariffs until August 1. Reciprocal tariffs, originally announced on...
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
Macro

Momentum and growth

The great US momentum trade continues. The data shows the economy is nowhere near to a recession.
Chris Iggo
AXA Investment Managers
Macro

RBA claims uncertainty; easing financial conditions are the real reason

The RBA again uses global uncertainty as a crutch to delay interest rate easing.
Tim Toohey
Yarra Capital Management
Macro

7 key charts for investors to keep an eye on

From Trump’s tariffs to business conditions and the gap between earnings yields and bond yields, here are key charts to watch.
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

RBA surprises by not cutting rates

RBA defies cut bets and holds in its July meeting; resilient data point to rising short yields and curve flattening.
WLE
Damien Boey
Wilson Asset Management
Rapid Fire

Big opportunity but lots of risk - Morgan Stanley's take on markets

Morgan Stanley's Chris Nicol shares risks to watch, how he is positioning portfolios and a big opportunity.
Sara Allen
Livewire Markets
Macro

2024-25 saw strong investment returns yet again – but is it sustainable?

Expect continuing volatility, more constrained returns and possibly, another 15% correction.
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

And into the second half…

Market returns have been strong in the first half of 2025.
Chris Iggo
AXA Investment Managers
Macro

Following momentum in the lucky country

Australia’s momentum trade is soaring past global peers, but history says these highs often precede a sharp reversal.
WLE
Damien Boey
Wilson Asset Management
Macro

The search for new central bank leadership

Trump’s push for a dovish Fed and the RBNZ’s need for a Governor provide insight into both central bank independence and economic impacts.
WGB
Catriona Burns
Wilson Asset Management
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