Australia

Macro
Brett Gillespie

January 1996. My wife was 8 months pregnant with our first child. I was a proprietary trader at Bankers Trust (had been since 1991), meaning I took macro views on interest rates and currencies. Indeed, very similar to what I do now, but with the bank’s capital rather than investors’... Show More

Buy Hold Sell
Buy Hold Sell

There’s no shortage of big-picture issues playing on investors' nerves right now. Macro and geopolitical forces have a firm grip on sentiment, and 2018 will be recorded as the year that delivered the highest percentage of negative returns across asset classes. For the third and final video in our 2019 Outlook... Show More

Fixed Income
Livewire Exclusive

In Australia today, growth is forecast to be around 2.5%, commodity prices are stable, jobs are strong, and inflation is low and stable. But in the background, risks are rising, explains Chris Rands from Nikko Asset Management. “The biggest risk that’s sitting there is the house price situation... The flow-through effect... Show More

Scott Haslem

As 26th President of the USA, Teddy Roosevelt said, “In any moment of decision, the best thing you can do is the right thing…the worst thing you can do is nothing.” Last month - where we set course for the rest of 2018 with our strongest views - one of... Show More

Christopher Joye

In the AFR today I reveal that Australia's budget has shocked all analysts and credit rating agencies by moving into an official surplus for the first 11 months of the 2018 financial year---some $20 billion better than Treasurer Scott Morrison forecast in 2017---on 2 of the 3 key budget measures... Show More

Chris Watling

Chinese steel consumption is the most significant variable in determining the iron ore price. China consumes over half of the world’s iron ore each year. As such, and while supply themes play a role, cycles of Chinese credit growth and housing activity are the key factors in determining iron ore... Show More

Brett Gillespie

September 27th, 1983. What comes to mind? What if I include the quote from Bob Hawke? “Any boss who sacks a worker for not turning up today is a bum”. If you are over 45, you will know straight away. It was the day the yacht Australia II won the... Show More

Gareth Brown

This will be short and likely controversial. There’s a lot of vitriol about dividend imputation these days. Much of it is misguided. However widely practised around the globe, double taxation of corporate earnings is unfair. Most countries acknowledge that fact indirectly by having low tax rates on dividends. Our dividend... Show More

Alex Cowie

While recent headlines have focused on the OECD’s passing comments on housing-debt risks in their recent 47-pager on Australia, the real meat and spuds in this great report is the analysis on, and recommendations for, Australia’s slipping productivity, innovation and inequality. We’ve pulled out some of the highlights and key... Show More

Glennon Capital

Last week marked the busiest week of the current reporting season. With most of the smaller companies reporting there was no shortage of stocks to profile. We take a look at three of these businesses, how they have fared during the reporting period and what this means for the businesses... Show More

Schroders Australia

As a fan of dystopian classics such as Huxley’s ‘Brave New World’ and Orwell’s ‘1984’, Martin Conlon, Schroders’ Head of Australian equites, finds their insights into the perils of searching for a manipulated utopia alarmingly relevant to today’s financial world. As a rationalist, he suggests the benefits of manipulating asset... Show More

Schroders Australia

Recessions are capitalism’s ways of correcting the imbalances that expanding economies ferment. Australia’s 25-year expansion has allowed two debt-based distortions to fest. These debt blowouts will be paramount in deciding how Australia’s economy performs in coming years. The threat posed by these imbalances, however, is contentious. One way to express... Show More

Schroders Australia

‘Oh, Inverted World’ is the title of the 2001 album of the US indie band The Shins. It's a good description of todays’ topsy turvey world created by loose monetary policy. One big distortion in the anomaly we see in stock pricing tied to business duration. Much-used discounted-cash flow analysis... Show More

James Marlay

The Australian Economy has now delivered 99 consecutive quarters without a recession. Australia is enjoying the longest economic expansion in the developed world — 24 years and counting. However, other commodity led economies are starting to falter. The Wall Street Journal have produced a great resource that looks at the... Show More

Schroders Australia

The interaction between valuation, sentiment as calibrated through price momentum, and policy is key. Differences in the valuation of cyclical stocks relative to defensive industrial stocks has only through the past quarter moved slightly away from hitherto unseen extreme levels. Sentiment, as ever, has followed this move, as measured through... Show More