australian economy

A surge in inflation in Q3 points to rates on hold for the rest of thus year and a much reduced chance of a cut next year

The US, UK, and France face high and rising public debt, where increased defence spending will add to the problem.

House prices have an outsized sensitivity to lower interest rates because the supply of housing is failing to keep pace with strong demand

…and the state of the Australian economy.

While there are reasons for caution, there are also reasons for optimism as the wealth effect holds up the consumer and drives share market.

Bank funding is relying more on bank bonds and local investment and pension funds have grown in importance as buyers of these bonds.

Unless Australia invests more in its workers and technology, poor productivity will leave living standards stuck in a rut.

The RBA has marked down potential growth on slower productivity growth, while trimming the neutral policy rate and lowering the NAIRU.

Wages, inflation, and living standards hinge on one thing: productivity. The answer? Tough economic reform.

The return of the term premium, which could increase given the deteriorating fiscal outlook, points to the risk of higher US bond yields.