Australian Interest Rates

Key interest rate futures now imply the RBA will cut rates four times in the next year, but these brokers think that’s just plain wrong.

Below is a summary of the topics we covered on Nucleus Investment Insights this month. See the links for more information.

The Reserve Bank chose to keep its cash rate on hold at their August meeting, but market pricing suggests they’re about to cut, and cut big…

The consensus in the market and among brokers is converging on an interest rate hike in August, but it’s far from a certainty.

And why the team is overweight European and Japanese equities

Tomorrow’s RBA meeting isn't expected to yield a change, but August's meeting is 'live' for a rate hike according to Morgan Stanley.

There’s definitely a shift in interest rate expectations post April CPI, but a hike remains a low probability vs cuts are now very distant!

Markets were expecting the next move in interest rates to be down, but after worse than expected inflation data a hike is back on the table.

History suggests that there is the risk that the RBA revises up its longer term forecasts of inflation.

And where the big opportunities lie for investors beyond AI, according to Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's Alexandre Ventelon