Australian Interest Rates

Australia’s inflation re-accelerates, testing the RBA’s credibility as rising CPI and core prices challenge dovish policy bets.

RBA’s dovish stance faces scrutiny as growth holds firm, inflation risks linger, and bond markets price in aggressive rate cuts.

Rate cut priced in, but our models show inflation could remain near the top of the RBA’s target band.

Weak June labour data raise odds of an August RBA cut, but policy rules suggest cash rate is already too low.

The return of the term premium, which could increase given the deteriorating fiscal outlook, points to the risk of higher US bond yields.

RBA defies cut bets and holds in its July meeting; resilient data point to rising short yields and curve flattening.

Here I unpack the possibility of faster and deeper RBA cuts, and what it would for equity investors.

Find out why we maintain a less dovish view than the RBA on interest rate expectations and favour Australian bonds over U.S. bonds.

RBA staff have revised down the estimated neutral rate cash rate to c2¾%, although it is not clear if policy-makers take it at face value.

David Bassanese says his base case is the RBA takes rates to 3.35% this year, while other economists warned the cut is a mistake.