bonds

Since the beginning of this year, financial markets and expectations have turned decidedly bearish. Concerns about a Sino-US trade war, along with the so-called...

(Ed note: First published 28th August 2019 - This remains our most popular video of all time, receiving over 750,000 views) Developed economies are at a crisis point,...

Today I argue that since we blindsided participants by first putting the likelihood of the Reserve Bank of Australia launching quantitative easing (QE) back in May,...

Over recent weeks the trade war ebbed and flowed, Hong Kong erupted in more protests, both the UK and Germany teetered on recession, New Zealand’s central bank stunned...

The latest episode of our Complexity Premia podcast is live and it is a big one! We discuss: what happened in bond markets in July and August; why the world’s best...

With bond prices going parabolic in the past few weeks (FIG 1), once again market participants are wondering whether the “bond market is in a bubble”. That concern...

The rally in 10-year bond yields over the past six months has seen the spread differential between 10-year and 3-month bond yields fall to -30 basis points....

The conventional explanation from recent moves in bond markets is that global bond yields are collapsing because investors fear a global recession, triggered by the...

The bond market is often seen as the most accurate indicator of what lies ahead for an economy, or at least what investors believe lies ahead. If the current gyrations...

With government bonds yielding around 1%, term deposits paying around 2%, and cash accounts often paying nothing, it’s no surprise that investors are looking in...

The back-story... I try to put my money where my mouth is. A couple of months prior to the Federal Election, we shifted more than $100m into franked ASX hybrids for...

Today I write that the RBA has been spinning stories (basically blatant BS) on housing, the most miraculous of which is the completely fallacious claim that cutting...

One of the key principles of investing - diversification - works because different assets do well in different circumstances. Broadly speaking, shares go up when the...

Don't know what "bail-in-able" debt means? Want to understand why the big banks are going to have to increase the global supply of these securities by almost 40%? And...

Today I write that the “bail-in-able” debt tsunami we forecast last week did not disappoint with two incredibly large "Tier 2" subordinated bond transactions executed...

This week I outline our analysis of the coming tsunami of "bail-in-able" Tier 2 bonds care of APRA's finalised Total Loss Absorbing Capacity (TLAC) policy, which the...

This week I reflect on the intensifying FOMO rally driven by the expected search for yield dynamic that has been triggered by RBA rate cuts, the prospect of the Fed...

In case you were wondering whether to sell all those boring defensive highly indebted infrastructure, utility and REIT stocks, look at these charts of the US,...

The very special Quantitative Easing (QE) episode from our top-rating Complexity Premia podcast is now live---go and listen at Apple or Podbean below. In this episode...

Bond markets look like they are pricing disaster, while equity markets are pricing an extended boom. But maybe there is a more nuanced message in there, the same one...