global macro

With stocks near all-time-highs, there is steadily accumulating evidence that this may be a historic time to sell. PMIs are diving. PMIs give false signals (eg 2016...

Populism is spreading rapidly and globally, and becoming more aggressive in its implementation and execution. It traverses national borders and can infiltrate...

Markets have changed and probably not for the better. Investor complacency seems to be the norm as their reliance on central banks and policymakers to come to the...

It’s a rare opportunity to get to sit down with an economist of the calibre of Tim Toohey from Ellerston Capital. He was formerly the Managing Director, Chief...

Let’s start by reviewing what the yield curve actually is. Consider a range of durations for government notes, for example, you can have 3-month notes, 1-year notes,...

In my last blog, I provided an overview of Vega Capital’s model for identifying and pre-empting recessions in the United States. Last Thursday (at WeWorks Martin...

Investors have likely heard asset allocation specialists advise increasing portfolio exposure to 'alternatives' given the current market conditions. Invesco's...

Let’s start by defining what a recession actually is. Google’s dictionary defines it as ‘a period of temporary economic decline during which trading and industrial...

We have seen the second sizeable sell-off this year. The SP500 has dropped -7.80% in October (so far), not quite matching the fall of -11.8% in Jan-Feb 2018. The...

Warren Buffett recently gave an interview where he reiterated his firm belief in the US economy, which justifies Berkshire Hathaway’s investment focus on quality US...

While absolute valuation has limited use for timing cyclical bull and bear markets, it does provide insights into market sensitivities to challenging (or indeed...

April was a very interesting month in respect of the continuing pressure on the price of financial assets. Globally economic data moderated over April which has been...

Over the past month our leading indicators of the industrial cycle have shown signs of peaking. The real question is whether this suggests the industrial cycle is...

On the 9th March 1987 U2 released the Joshua Tree, the fastest selling British Album of all time that went on to sell over 25 million copies. Joshua Tree is still...

Have you ever pushed the limit? Sure you have, just that little bit further, just that little bit faster. It’s the secret to success. But also sometimes disaster…...

It was February 4th, 1994, and I was on a plane to LA from Sydney. I was treating myself to 4-week holiday skiing in Aspen and then on to New York; 1993 had been a...

It’s the time of year we typically take stock – both personally and professionally. And if you are reading this, presumably financially as well. And we make our New...