global macro

Markets have changed and probably not for the better. Investor complacency seems to be the norm as their reliance on central banks and policymakers to come to the...

It’s a rare opportunity to get to sit down with an economist of the calibre of Tim Toohey from Ellerston Capital. He was formerly the Managing Director, Chief...

Let’s start by reviewing what the yield curve actually is. Consider a range of durations for government notes, for example, you can have 3-month notes, 1-year notes,...

In my last blog, I provided an overview of Vega Capital’s model for identifying and pre-empting recessions in the United States. Last Thursday (at WeWorks Martin...

Investors have likely heard asset allocation specialists advise increasing portfolio exposure to 'alternatives' given the current market conditions. Invesco's...

Let’s start by defining what a recession actually is. Google’s dictionary defines it as ‘a period of temporary economic decline during which trading and industrial...

We have seen the second sizeable sell-off this year. The SP500 has dropped -7.80% in October (so far), not quite matching the fall of -11.8% in Jan-Feb 2018. The...

Warren Buffett recently gave an interview where he reiterated his firm belief in the US economy, which justifies Berkshire Hathaway’s investment focus on quality US...