Let's first consider the broader global economic environment, in particular, the macro drivers of a “globally co-ordinated” gradual improvement in economies which are continuing to evolve. The primary driver of markets, at this point in time, is globally accommodative monetary policy, which underpins economic expansion and the rise in financial... Show More
China is now the biggest elephant in the global room. We will have to get used to it. International financial news will not tell us how many cats did not get stuck up a tree this morning. Instead, they will report every crisis, real or imagined which occurs around the... Show More
The NAB business survey reported a pullback in business conditions and confidence in July; however, conditions remained above long-run average levels, while confidence was broadly in line. Of the sub-components of conditions, trading conditions and profitability both remain robust, but the employment index is clearly lagging well behind. Turning to... Show More
As highlighted by Chief Economist Bill Evans, this is a very surprising result. Movements of the Index of this Show More
In this Economic Update we discuss whether investors are out of the woods with the Greek situation and the new pressure point which appears to be China. Show More
Everyone has been watching the eye-watering rise of the Chinese A-Share indices and the most recent 30%+ correction of the China Shenzhen A-Share Index. This index is up 62% year to date. It is interesting to note that since the 1st of August 2009, the China Shenzhen A Share... Show More
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Despite a small rally on Friday, last week was very trying for the few remaining precious metal bulls. Five tonnes of metal dumped on the SGE, plus a surge in volume on COMEX combined to send the gold price down USD $50oz in a matter of minutes. A much lower... Show More
Policy makers and the Australian CPI were in focus this week. For the RBA, the key themes on show in the minutes of the July board meeting were little changed: the consumer is lacklustre; business investment weak despite a lower AUD and firm confidence; and housing remains the key bright... Show More
Having just returned from Europe, I was struck by the different perspectives on the two dominant themes in the markets at the moment- China and Greece, the former is being painted as a political issue while the latter is being painted as an economic one. In fact, to me at... Show More
It's been another long week for precious metal bulls, with gold falling below USD $1150oz. A somewhat hawkish sounding Janet Yellen, combined with relative calm as regards the ongoing drama in Greece were enough to further dent the outlook for gold, with the metal now dangerously close to falling through... Show More
It has certainly been a very busy week. Greece reached agreement on initial reforms with European leaders, subsequently passed by their parliament. Now negotiations on debt restructuring can begin. Markets are happier, but the economic cost for Greece is such that uncertainty will persist. In the US, FOMC Chair Yellen... Show More
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An IMF report says that 1) Greece needs a lot more debt relief. Well beyond what Europe has been willing to consider so far. 2) Debt sustainability projections are unrealistic 3) Greek borrowing at anything below AAA would cause an unsustainable debt dynamic for years. 4) Eurozone creditors must accept... Show More
Most politicians are humbled by President Kennedy’s statement that 'history is the final judge of our deeds' when it comes to evaluating political achievement, which make you wonder about the new Greek government and its accomplishment in its first year in office. After the Greek economy recorded a few flickers... Show More
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The collapse of Chinese stocks in the past month does indeed eclipse Greece's market turmoil. But when it comes to the volatility of the exchange-traded funds tracking those two markets, it's a (scary) toss-up. Show More
Reuters: Euro zone leaders made Greece surrender much of its sovereignty to outside supervision on Monday in return for agreeing to talks on an 86 billion euro ($95 billion dollars) bailout to keep the near-bankrupt country in the single currency. Just hours after the deal was settled in marathon all-night... Show More
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