leading indicators

Cracks appearing in the global economic resurgence

Callum Thomas

I wanted to highlight this chart because the latest data basically makes it start to look like it's going against my previous thinking. The "flash global manufacturing PMI" which is an indicator I put together based on the flash readings of the Europe, US, and Japan manufacturing PMIs has weakened... Show More

Weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm - 15 Jan 2017

Callum Thomas

Here's 10 charts on the S&P500 covering the short term outlook, medium term earnings outlook, US election, and political risk. Overall a similar conclusion from last week holds i.e. that short-term there remains some risks, but medium term the outlook is positive on the back of improving earnings. Aside from... Show More

We’re not near recession-levels

AMP Capital

A favourite set of indicators I watch globally are the business conditions PMIs (or Purchasing Managers Indexes) that are released each month. These give a timely guide to business conditions and confidence. Changes in direction for them can give a guide to which way individual economies and the global economy... Show More

macro leading indicators the buy side brief

Leading indicators point to challenges ahead

Livewire Exclusive

As any experienced investor can tell you, markets are forward-looking. Howard Marks once said, “Being far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong”, but the opposite can also be true – what’s wise in the beginning is folly in the end. Leading indicators are one way that professional... Show More

macro leading indicators the buy side brief

What credit markets are telling us now

Jonathan Rochford

Hyman Minsky explained that it is the availability of credit that drives business cycles. If businesses are able to easily borrow they will expand, if the availability of credit dries up they will contract. The US high yield market, via the Merrill Lynch US High Yield Master II, is the... Show More

macro leading indicators junk bonds the buy side brief

No sign of a pick-up in global growth

BT Investment Management

The world is headed for further deceleration. According to our Global Leading Indicator (GLI) model, which identifies trends and turning points within the economic cycle, the current environment is braced for more faltering growth as China and other emerging markets trace a downward spiral. Despite periodic positives out from the... Show More

macro leading indicators the buy side brief

Leading indicators showing red flags

Chris Watling

We look at a large number of leading indicators across several key economies. In particular, we focus on indicators relevant for the 3 key economic regions of the global economy (i.e. US, China & Europe). We then turn those indicators into traffic lights, color coding each one red-amber-green dependent on... Show More

macro leading indicators the buy side brief

Chemical activity pointing to gains in US business activity in early 2016

Matthew Wright

The Chemical Activity Barometer is a leading economic indicator derived from a composite index of chemical industry activity. The chemical industry has been found to consistently lead the U.S. economy’s business cycle given its early position in the supply chain, and this barometer can be used to determine turning points... Show More

us growth leading indicators

3 best leading indicators on the US Economy

Livewire News

According to Merrill Lynch “The most useful indicators in nowcasting are not the big macro numbers, but rather secondary indicators that are released in a very timely manner. Thus the top three indicators are all survey-based measures that are released before the end of the reference month they are measuring... Show More

us economy leading indicators boa merrill lynch

One indicator that’s creeping up – The TED Spread

Tom McKay

The TED Spread is calculated as the difference between the 3 month LIBOR rate and the 3 month T-Bill interest rate, and it’s considered a key measure of credit risk in the economy. When the TED Spread rises, it indicates that perceived credit risk is increasing among counterparties – and... Show More

leading indicators ted spread

After slowing in the earlier part of the year, the US economy looks to get back on track, according to the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index

Jay Soloff

After slowing in the earlier part of the year, the US economy looks to get back on track, according to the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index. The LEI is a closely watched index made up of 10 components which tend to correlated to future economic activity (over the next 3... Show More

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