After slowing in the earlier part of the year, the US economy looks to get back on track, according to the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index. The LEI is a closely watched index made up of 10 components which tend to correlated to future economic activity (over the next 3 to 6 months). The index climbed 0.4% in April while March was revised up to a 1% increase. That marks the third consecutive month of growth. In April, gains were driven by improved housing and financial market conditions. Overall, 5 of the 10 indicators gained for the month. The Conference Board believes that if US consumers continue to spend, and businesses pick up the pace of investments, GDP could close in on 3% for the year. Clearly, this is a very positive outlook for those concerned about economic growth. (VIEW LINK)


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Jay Soloff

Most of the contrarian views in the US are coming from the far-right wing and are mostly based on political beliefs rather than economic principles. Mainstream economists generally agree that the US is recovering slowly but would like to see the growth rate pick up. Regarding Shostak, making any predictions based on the money supply during a liquidity trap is a recipe for error. I don't believe money supply makes a bit of difference in a demand-constrained economy.

James Marlay

Jay did you watch the video from Frank Shostak? Quite a polarised view from what the data seems to be saying right now. Are you aware of similar contrarian views being discussed over in the US?