Cracks appearing in the global economic resurgence

Callum Thomas

I wanted to highlight this chart because the latest data basically makes it start to look like it's going against my previous thinking. The "flash global manufacturing PMI" which is an indicator I put together based on the flash readings of the Europe, US, and Japan manufacturing PMIs has weakened - if only slightly - for the second month in a row in March. Underlying that picture is an accelerating Europe being offset by some weaker prints out of US and Japan.

To be fair, these can be volatile series, but the fact that US and Japan have stopped improving certainly provides an excuse for at least a temporary pause in the rising bond yields theme. It may well be short-lived though so watch this space...


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Callum Thomas

Callum Thomas

Head of Research, Topdown Charts

Callum is Head of Research at Topdown Charts. Topdown Charts is a chart-driven macro research house covering global Asset Allocation and Economics.

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