Bond markets recently slapped equity investors in the face with a 50-basis point reminder of who is really in charge here. As the famous quote from James Carville goes: “I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or... Show More
Callum Thomas’ weekly ChartStorm highlights some interesting charts including (below) the seasonally weak period we are entering. However, several charts demonstrate a more positive backdrop with North American institutional investors close to becoming buyers of equities again, while short sellers have retreated, and stock market sentiment on the rise… Show More
Implied volatility is a well known indicator for the stock market e.g. the CBOE VIX Index, with spikes and troughs in the index generating useful market timing signals. But what about the foreign exchange markets? Today's chart shows the average US Dollar option volatilities across developed market currencies, and the... Show More
I wanted to highlight this chart because the latest data basically makes it start to look like it's going against my previous thinking. The "flash global manufacturing PMI" which is an indicator I put together based on the flash readings of the Europe, US, and Japan manufacturing PMIs has weakened... Show More
Livewire reached out to Ardea, asking us three questions: What is the single most important chart we are watching, what is it currently telling us, and what are the implications for investors? Responses below from Tamar Hamlyn, Ardea's Principal: Show More
I consider the oil price to be the single most import chart to watch today. OPEC oil producers still appear committed to the production agreement but US oil producers are adding to global supplies and keeping downward pressure on prices. The chart is telling me that oil prices looked to... Show More
The attached chart from the Macro Technicals report shows average speculative futures positioning across commodities against a popular broad commodities index. The bottom line is commodity net-longs are the most stretched they've been in 12 years. Show More
This week's S&P500 #ChartStorm looks at some interesting charts on topics like sector performance and revenues, the prospects for active management, and some important signals for the market outlook. Take a look at the charts and add your thoughts in the comments. Show More
This would have to be my chart of the week. The red line shows the proportion of countries (70 in this study) that are currently in a bull market: currently just over 50%. The chart appeared in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes https://www.topdowncharts.com/single-post/2017/01/13/Weekly-Macro-Themes---13-January-2017 . So how do... Show More
Here's 10 charts on the S&P500 covering the short term outlook, medium term earnings outlook, US election, and political risk. Overall a similar conclusion from last week holds i.e. that short-term there remains some risks, but medium term the outlook is positive on the back of improving earnings. Aside from... Show More
Here goes 10 charts on the S&P500 which evoke both bullish and bearish thoughts. The bearish ones are generally shorter-term in nature while the bullish ones are more medium term... The simplest way to reconcile it is that we could easily see a correction early this year before the market... Show More
Those that follow my personal account on Twitter https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically I'll pick a couple of themes and hammer them home with the charts, but sometimes it's just a... Show More
In this week's edition, based only on the limited selection of charts, you would say that price is very strong, and that it's at least partly justified by improving fundamentals. While increasingly bullish sentiment and overbought indicators open up the possibility of a short-term correction, if the improving fundamentals trend... Show More
This week we look at how the passing of the election risk is a key moment for the market with a swift reaction being seen in a number of indicators such as market breadth, sentiment, risk pricing, and hedging activity. But given the presence of a number of bullish undercurrents... Show More
This week's S&P500 #ChartStorm (see my Twitter account: https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas ) covers a series of indicators that show, after a 9-day losing streak, oversold conditions and contrarian bullish signals for the S&P500. While the current selloff could go further, the odds of positive performance are rising as these indicators start to... Show More
Those that follow my personal account on Twitter and StockTwits will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically I'll pick a couple of themes and hammer them home with the charts, but sometimes it's just... Show More
