Are Australian bond-like proxies going to suffer a bondcano moment? Certainly, stocks that have defensive characteristics have been sold down in recent months. And bond bears would have it that they are collateral damage from rising US yields. However, we believe this is a false narrative. Hence, we need to... Show More
A reset has occurred in the bond markets with sentiment going from extreme pessimism - expecting higher yields, back to the opposite side with the bond sentiment indicator now showing increasing expectations of lower yields. The chart below appeared in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report alongside... Show More
I wanted to highlight this chart because the latest data basically makes it start to look like it's going against my previous thinking. The "flash global manufacturing PMI" which is an indicator I put together based on the flash readings of the Europe, US, and Japan manufacturing PMIs has weakened... Show More
Market was choppy all day but finished well in the positive territory to deliver the best week since mid-July. Get used to higher volatility…..it is going to be with us for the rest of 2016. Markets have priced in the optimism from the new US leadership while uncertainty still looms... Show More
We believe that bond yields have finally bottomed. As they begin to increase gradually, investors can expect a higher ‘risk-free’ return from longer term government bonds. This, in turn, should see a jump in the required returns from other riskier asset classes such as equities, placing pressure on current valuations.... Show More
Over the past two months the sell-off in government bond markets around the world has been pronounced raising the question of whether there is a change approaching in the global economy? Is the era of slow growth, low inflation and low interest rates coming to an end with the world... Show More
Sunset Strip | Aussie market maintained the negative sentiment from rates being left unchanged by RBA. Turnover was just above $5.5billion. RBA member said AUDUSD has a bit further to fall, Unemployment to go higher and GDP growth needs to hit 3% for unemployment to turn. We don't see GDP... Show More