Aussie market's up trend is about to break as US optimism struggles to support stretched multiples. Aussie markets has experienced profit taking cycles every 2-3 months over the last year. We estimate downside risk in the short term to be around 5-7%. High PE growth stocks will once again be... Show More
Best periods for Spot Gold...Jan-Feb and Jul-Sep. Gold will benefit from rising market risk and declining USD as global markets move from fantasy to reality in US fiscal policy outcomes. If the market is right, then inflation and rates will go up. If the market is wrong, then profit taking... Show More
US volatility index has come down to current levels five times in the last decade. Every time the market ran into short term profit taking cycle with rising volatility. Show More
Global markets are moving from deflation and low rates to an inflation and rate rising environment. Recovering economies will deliver growth while struggling economies will see capital outflows. The changing global dynamics will continue to push investors towards a better equilibrium between growth and yield. We see this transition driving... Show More
Market lost the momentum from four straight positive days to deliver a negative day. We are in the school holiday period where most investors will take the next two weeks off with Christmas and New Year breaks. We have seen better volumes this week than most expected and that may... Show More
Market moved up again despite negative global sentiment to deliver fourth straight positive day. Aussie market looks to be suffering from delusions of grandeur by maintaining the positive momentum despite falls in global markets, currency, volatility index and yields. We are in the school holiday period where most will take... Show More
Market moved up again on positive global sentiment to deliver third straight positive day. The local market has now reached near 18mth high on price index while making new all-time high on accumulation (i.e. including dividend) index. The main market in focus is the US and history shows that there... Show More
Market moved up again on weak sentiment with fundamentals remaining negative. Geopolitical risks in Turkey and Germany will add to the uncertainty for global markets. Local markets have reached 5600 again and weakening local economic outlook and emerging market risk will weigh on the index. The local market is at... Show More
Market jumped up on the open as the retail market took over from institutional market as the school holidays started. Usual lower volume up day for mid-December with bank dividends helping to support the market. The local market is at the mercy of the overpriced US market and we expect... Show More
Market pulled back slightly as global sentiment remains weak after running ahead of the fundamentals. US Fed has set the path to end cheap debt while every other central bank is on hold indefinitely. The stronger the yields, the strong the USD, the more pressure on Emerging Markets to raise... Show More
In the spirit of lighter reading into Xmas season, this week's blog by Jack Lowenstein here at Morphic looks at a recent academic publication that examines if there is a link between the cars that Fund Managers chose and the risks they take in their fund. Turns out there is... Show More
Market pulled back with global sentiment after US Fed flagged a step up in their outlook to rate rise. Credit is where credit is due. US Fed has taken a beating from every pundit on the rate of change while history will treat them well as they have achieved their... Show More
Market moved up again on global positive sentiment ahead of the US Fed update to be only 40 points off the 2016 high…but on accumulation (i.e. dividends included) basis we are at all-time highs (i.e. created a new high today). The positive performers today were led by Discretionary retail and... Show More
Market moved up and down like a headless chook before finishing negative on the risk that Chinese stimulus may wane after solid retail and factory data. We are seeing the early stages of friction between the corporatisation of the western fiscal policy rubbing against the authoritarian cohesion of the eastern... Show More
Global markets are beginning to digest the stretched valuations, high yields and strong currency ahead of the US Fed meeting. The aggregate policy outlook from the new administration is expected to push up inflation and debt in the process of raising growth. The inflation rally since October has been running... Show More
Market finished relatively flat despite positive global sentiment from the weekend driven by the Oil deal. Bleeding oil producers and self-interest to get a good price for oil asset sales have finally delivered a supply side response from OPEC and non-OPEC producers. The main game this week is the US... Show More
Market followed the weak global positive sentiment after ECB decided to trim QE magnitude per month while stretching out the period to the end of 2017. As we always say… “Self Interest”, for lack of a better word, is a good leading indicator. ECB delivered as we expected...not substantially expand... Show More
For right or for wrong, the market's narrative has changed and changing trends and dynamics have swiftly created winners and losers across the Australian share market. Show More
Market followed the global positive sentiment higher as expectations of ECB delivering more stimulus. We don’t think the ECB is going to come out and spend more…but more likely to play defence by stretching out QE time frame to reduce uncertainty in 2017 when the EU super powers like Germany... Show More
Market built on the early positive run to finish a solid positive day despite a substantially weak GDP data. The weak GDP data, underemployment worries and low wages growth shows the weakness in the local economy despite the strong commodity prices. Beaten up stocks were the best performers again today... Show More
