rba

Latest news and analysis on rba

Macro

Advance Australia, fair? Morgan Stanley’s local outlook remains relatively positive on the ASX, the dollar and growth

Morgan Stanley’s Chris Nicol says Australia is in a decent spot despite tariffs, slow growth and an expensive stock market.
Tom Stelzer
Livewire Markets
Fixed Income

Australian rates to fall to neutral but not much more

Find out why we maintain a less dovish view than the RBA on interest rate expectations and favour Australian bonds over U.S. bonds.
Damien Boey
Wilson Asset Management
Fixed Income

The Aussie investment class still offering 5%+ yield

As the cash rate comes down, income opportunities are becoming thin on the ground for those chasing decent yields
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Tom Stelzer
Livewire Markets
Macro

The RBA marks down the neutral cash rate again

RBA staff have revised down the estimated neutral rate cash rate to c2¾%, although it is not clear if policy-makers take it at face value.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Buy Hold Sell

Buy Hold Sell: 7 ASX names set to thrive amid lower rates

Matthew Haupt from Wilson Asset Management and Tim Johnston from Tyndall Asset Management analyse stocks set to benefit from rate cuts.
APA
GMG
+4
Buy Hold Sell
Livewire Markets
Macro

US tariffs point to a sharp US contraction & global downturn

The latest US tariffs plus extreme policy uncertainty point to a sharp decline in US output and the risk of a synchronised global downturn
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Success and More Interesting Stuff

Dr Philip Lowe: Interest rates alone can’t conquer Australia’s cost of living crisis

The former RBA Governor says Australia is obsessed with interest rates like no other country, and it is distracting us from bigger issues.
Matthew Kidman
Centennial Asset Management
Macro

RBA cuts by 25bp, cautious on more cuts given inflation does not return to the 2½% target

The RBA cut rates, but was cautious in signalling more cuts given underlying inflation is no longer forecast to hit the 2½% target.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Equities

The Australian dollar is near five-year lows and these 4 ASX sectors stand to benefit

Plus, how high is the bar for the ASX-listed banks in 2025?
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

QLD's budget "black hole" a catalyst for government action

The new state government is forecasting a substantially worse budget outlook, with a massive increase in public debt.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

RBA still likely to argue demand is exceeding supply

Updated RBA estimates of spare capacity suggest that demand still exceeds supply, both in terms of activity and the labour market.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Productivity vs population in driving the US and Australian economies

US economic outperformance reflects superior labour productivity, while Australia continues to be powered by strong population growth.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

RBA: "no evidence that monetary policy overall is more potent in Australia"

A senior RBA official has acknowledged that there is "no evidence that monetary policy ... is more potent in Australia than ".
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

RBA: Policy not as tight as peers, which is why inflation is higher

The RBA has highlighted how policy is less tight than other countries, such that inflation is higher than in nearly all its peers.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The room to cut interest rates across countries

The RBA never raised rates by as much as other countries, so it has relatively less scope to cut them in a soft economic landing.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Persistent excess demand vs returning inflation to target

The RBA optimistically expects inflation will return to target without spare capacity emerging in the economy.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Financial stability & its potential bearing on eventual RBA rate cuts

The RBA is alert to the possibility that eventual rate cuts might spur risky borrowing by already-heavily-indebted households.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The public sector’s role in propping up growth and jobs

The public sector has accounted for all the growth in GDP over the past year and made the largest contribution to strong jobs growth.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Australians continue to run down their COVID-era savings

Households continue to follow the US experience, drawing on the excess savings built up during the pandemic.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The Fed cut by 50 basis points. Would the RBA consider doing the same?

The RBA holds rates for another meeting - even as its peers start the long cutting road back to neutral.
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
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