When will rates rise in Australia?

Crestone Wealth Management

Rates are rising in the US, but it is less clear when Australia will follow suit. At our recent Investment Forum, we hosted six of Australia’s top investment strategists to discuss when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might hike, and to ask several other key questions, including where they... Show More

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Falling house prices and other problems

Elizabeth Moran

FIIG Securities guest contributor, Stephen Koukoulas says for more than two years, the annual underlying inflation rate has been between 1.6 and 1.9 per cent, locked below the RBA 2 to 3 per cent target. Here he talks about what this means, and takes a look at the data on... Show More

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RBA, not inert supply, blew housing bubble

Christopher Joye

In my AFR column I explain why the RBA, not housing supply as governor Philip Lowe conveniently argues, was responsible for blowing the great Aussie housing bubble and what assets currently look cheap in a world where most remain dear (click on that link to read for free or AFR... Show More

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The outlook for Australian house prices

Chris Rands

Over the past 15 years Australian house prices have been on an incredible run, resulting in Australian households becoming some of the most indebted in the world. So what is the economic cost of Australia’s sky high property prices and what could it mean for property prices in 2018? Show More

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RBA still on hold

Angus Coote

Yet again another quarter and another CPI miss. The RBA has no reason to move rates on the back of these soft numbers. Despite oil prices rallying throughout the quarter and the global economy and risk in general being bid to the moon, we are still yet to see the... Show More

The ten things to watch in 2018

Saul Eslake

Here are ten things that I think will shape the global and Australian economies in 2018, and that expect I’ll be talking about at conferences and events over the course of the coming year. Show More

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House prices are falling... Be careful what you wish for, RBA

Stephen Koukoulas

The recent house price data from Corelogic are showing further falls in house prices. The falls are, disconcertingly, most evident in Sydney where prices have dropped 0.5 per cent so far in January, which brings the aggregate fall since the September 2017 peak to a chunky 2.9 per cent. This... Show More

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Reserve Bank warns of skills shortages


The Reserve Bank of Australia has left the cash rate on hold for a 16th straight month. What changed since the last meeting? Show More

Will the RBA hike in 2018?

Alex Joiner

The most important question for 2018 in an Australian context will be whether the economy is strong enough for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to start removing policy accommodation. That is to say, to have confidently begun a tightening cycle. This is the expectation of most market economists and... Show More

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RBA Way Wrong on Unemployment

Christopher Joye

In the AFR today I explain why long-term forecasting is a waste of time; why Australia's jobless rate in December 2018 will likely be 0.75% to 1.0% lower than the 5.5% rate the RBA is currently forecasting; why the enigmatic Guy Debelle might one day make a great governor; and... Show More

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Investor Signposts: Reserve Bank dominates proceedings


· If it wasn’t for the Reserve Bank, the domestic calendar in the coming week would be decidedly thin. In the US, there are few key events in a holiday-shortened week. Minutes of the last central bank policymaking meetings are released in Australia and the US. Show More

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Why the RBA is wrong, wrong, wrong...

Stephen Koukoulas

The latest Statement on Monetary Policy has confirmed the failure of the Reserve Bank of Australia to implement monetary policy settings that are consistent with its inflation target and objective of full employment. Show More

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Investor Signposts: Week Beginning November 5 2017


Reserve Bank dominates the agenda: It is a quiet week for economic data in the US and Australia. The Reserve Bank dominates the key local events. Show More

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What’s behind the rise in house prices - and what to do about it

Matthew  Coleman

There are many explanations for the astronomical rise in house prices along Australia’s eastern seaboard. But most economists settle on is that we haven’t built enough homes in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane to support their booming populations. Show More

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Inflation Watch Australia

Cameron Rae

Last week we referred to international forecasting agencies and several central banks starting to consider that inflation may make a cyclical come-back over the next year or two. Yet in Australia most forecasters still see only slow and modest lift in local inflation at most over the next two years.... Show More

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Glenn Stevens' thought piece: The key takeouts

Livewire News

In this thought piece for Ellerston Capital's new global macro fund, Glenn Stevens, the former RBA governor, has some fresh views on drivers of persistent low inflation in this fascinating read that also set this issue within a very long-term historical context. We distilled the highlights for you, and link... Show More

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Inflation Watch

Cameron Rae

At the latest combined meeting of the IMF and World Bank the heads of the world’s major central banks seemed close to agreeing that the global economic recovery is entrenched and that inflation is unlikely to stay low for much longer. It was the clearest warning so far that the... Show More

inflation rba monetary policy Laminar Capital

Catch 22 for RBA

Cameron Rae

Australian households are on average better off than they have ever been mostly because of the large increases in household wealth over recent years and a low unemployment rate closing in on what might be considered the “full-employment” unemployment rate. Yet in this age of comparative plenty the household sector... Show More

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Bond Bull Rips Apart Bears

Christopher Joye

In the AFR today I dwell on the doves' case apropos "low rates for long" and, in particular, engage with the lord of the domestic bond "bulls", Charlie Jamieson, who is uncompromising in his evisceration of the bond "bears" as represented by the likes of Tim Toohey and Brett Gillespie... Show More

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Investor Signposts: Housing finance & RBA Financial Stability Review due


Gauges of business and consumer sentiment are in focus in the week ahead together with measures of personal lending – home loans and credit card debt. In the US, inflation and retail sales data and minutes from the past Federal Reserve meeting are the events to watch. Show More