Make Australia Gold Again!

Jordan Eliseo

Gold prices have steadied in the last few trading days, after correcting over the last month in the face of a rallying USD, and a sharp unwind in speculative positions. Show More

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You don’t need a catalyst for a crash

Livewire Exclusive

In any discussion of the Australian housing market, it’s impossible to avoid discussion of a catalyst. “We see no immediate catalysts for a crash,” has become the cry of the perpetual housing bull. But Dr Philipp Hofflin from the Lazard Australian Equity Team believes a catalyst is unnecessary. Show More

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To hike or not to hike

Brett Gillespie

The Royal Commission into Banking. My lord! But rather than opine over the content, we are interested in the potential impact. Several months ago our economist Tim Toohey estimated the impact on consumer spending when interest only loans switched to principle and interest. We were pleased to see Deputy Governor... Show More

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Dissecting the latest budget

Shane Oliver

The 2018-19 Budget will be the last before the next election (due by May 2019) and so had to provide pre-election goodies but in a way that keeps the return to surplus on track. Thanks to an improvement in the budget position since the Mid-Year review, of around $7bn per... Show More

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Tide turning on inflation - and adjustments will follow

Kellie Wood

While the global economy delivers on growth, the signs are there from the US regarding the pressure of inflation as the Fed raises rates, coupled with indications of wage pickup across the world. The RBA remains in a holding pattern on rates, and won’t move until the unemployment rate drops... Show More

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Are the Pieces Falling into Place for an RBA Rate Rise?

Clive Smith

The consensus view is that it is unlikely that the Reserve Bank of Australia (“RBA”) will act to raise cash rates in 2018. While not all the pieces are in place yet to justify a rate rise, it may not take that much to get the RBA over the line. Show More

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The increase in the global cost of capital to bite

Charlie Jamieson

The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25% as expected to the upper band target of 1.75%, 0.25% higher than that of the RBA cash rate. The Fed rationalised the increase noting the strengthening of the economic outlook in recent months. Show More

When will rates rise in Australia?

Crestone Wealth Management

Rates are rising in the US, but it is less clear when Australia will follow suit. At our recent Investment Forum, we hosted six of Australia’s top investment strategists to discuss when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might hike, and to ask several other key questions, including where they... Show More

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Falling house prices and other problems

Elizabeth Moran

FIIG Securities guest contributor, Stephen Koukoulas says for more than two years, the annual underlying inflation rate has been between 1.6 and 1.9 per cent, locked below the RBA 2 to 3 per cent target. Here he talks about what this means, and takes a look at the data on... Show More

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RBA, not inert supply, blew housing bubble

Christopher Joye

In my AFR column I explain why the RBA, not housing supply as governor Philip Lowe conveniently argues, was responsible for blowing the great Aussie housing bubble and what assets currently look cheap in a world where most remain dear (click on that link to read for free or AFR... Show More

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The outlook for Australian house prices

Chris Rands

Over the past 15 years Australian house prices have been on an incredible run, resulting in Australian households becoming some of the most indebted in the world. So what is the economic cost of Australia’s sky high property prices and what could it mean for property prices in 2018? Show More

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RBA still on hold

Angus Coote

Yet again another quarter and another CPI miss. The RBA has no reason to move rates on the back of these soft numbers. Despite oil prices rallying throughout the quarter and the global economy and risk in general being bid to the moon, we are still yet to see the... Show More

The ten things to watch in 2018

Saul Eslake

Here are ten things that I think will shape the global and Australian economies in 2018, and that expect I’ll be talking about at conferences and events over the course of the coming year. Show More

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House prices are falling... Be careful what you wish for, RBA

Stephen Koukoulas

The recent house price data from Corelogic are showing further falls in house prices. The falls are, disconcertingly, most evident in Sydney where prices have dropped 0.5 per cent so far in January, which brings the aggregate fall since the September 2017 peak to a chunky 2.9 per cent. This... Show More

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Reserve Bank warns of skills shortages


The Reserve Bank of Australia has left the cash rate on hold for a 16th straight month. What changed since the last meeting? Show More

Will the RBA hike in 2018?

Alex Joiner

The most important question for 2018 in an Australian context will be whether the economy is strong enough for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to start removing policy accommodation. That is to say, to have confidently begun a tightening cycle. This is the expectation of most market economists and... Show More

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RBA Way Wrong on Unemployment

Christopher Joye

In the AFR today I explain why long-term forecasting is a waste of time; why Australia's jobless rate in December 2018 will likely be 0.75% to 1.0% lower than the 5.5% rate the RBA is currently forecasting; why the enigmatic Guy Debelle might one day make a great governor; and... Show More

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Investor Signposts: Reserve Bank dominates proceedings


· If it wasn’t for the Reserve Bank, the domestic calendar in the coming week would be decidedly thin. In the US, there are few key events in a holiday-shortened week. Minutes of the last central bank policymaking meetings are released in Australia and the US. Show More

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Why the RBA is wrong, wrong, wrong...

Stephen Koukoulas

The latest Statement on Monetary Policy has confirmed the failure of the Reserve Bank of Australia to implement monetary policy settings that are consistent with its inflation target and objective of full employment. Show More

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Investor Signposts: Week Beginning November 5 2017


Reserve Bank dominates the agenda: It is a quiet week for economic data in the US and Australia. The Reserve Bank dominates the key local events. Show More

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