recession

While many wait and hope for a Fed pause or pivot - hanging on every piece of text and utterance from the Fed, the real focus should be on inflation expectations....

One of the world’s most successful investors of recent decades, Howard Marks is a champion of contrarian investing. In his latest memo, the Oaktree Capital founder...

Pandemic Property Price Pop: Globally, property prices have been juiced to historically expensive levels thanks to pandemic (over)stimulus. As an indication of just...

There was an unprecedented amount of inflation talk among US companies at the end of 2021. Inflation is still frequently mentioned in corporate discussions along...

The Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm is a selection of 10 charts that I handpicked from around the web and from Twitter posts. The purpose of this wire is to add extra...

Global markets have capitulated since the NASDAQ 100, proxy for US growth and tech stock performance, reached an all-time high in November 2021. The falls are the...

Well thank goodness for that. We’ve made it past the end of June, and in doing so completed a half year that no investor is likely to want repeated. There have been...

Famed Canadian-American economist John Kenneth Galbraith once said that the only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable. Not the most...

Energy Prices vs Metal Prices: Energy commodity prices (the index in this chart includes crude oil, natural gas, and other petroleum products) have pulled back from...

Like a bear with a sore head, many investors probably wish they had stayed in hibernation in 2022. It has been a brutal year so far, the worst since the Great...

The US equity market has now entered its third bear market (greater than 20% market sell-off) in under four years – the quickest hat trick in at least 120 years....

The risk of a recession in the US in 2023 based on bond/equity market pricing and forecasts has surged as interest rates have risen and equities have slumped, with...

After hitting a peak of over 4,700 at the end of last year, the S&P 500 has since corrected by more than 20% placing it in a technical bear market (again). In...

European Equities — Sentiment vs Stocks: After a very promising looking - almost textbook breakout last year, European equities have come all the way back down to...

It was January 2021 when Jeremy Grantham of GMO published a piece on this very website saying that the last dance is near. In it, he noted that the bubble was...

Picture it, New York City, September 11th, 2001. I don't have to tell you what happened that day - we all probably remember where we were when we heard the news that...

US equities have fallen 14%-23% (S&P500 and NASDAQ) since we publicly revealed our bearish outlook on the market and many other correlated asset-classes, including...

It’s a never-ending ritual: many people hype current (and try to guess upcoming) national income statistics such as Gross Domestic Product – or heed those who do. The...

Ask an investor what they would most like to know in advance and the timing of the next recession might be high up their list. The correlation between the ups and...

We believe that one of the biggest issues for financial markets in the period ahead is the risk of a recession in the world's largest economy bringing down equity...