recession

We believe that one of the biggest issues for financial markets in the period ahead is the risk of a recession in the world's largest economy bringing down equity...

The Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm is a selection of 10 charts which I hand pick from around the web and post on Twitter. The purpose of this post is to add extra color and...

The yield on the 10-year bond recently fell below the yield on the 5-year bond. This is very unusual. Normally, the longer the duration of the bond, the higher the...

A risk-management approach to unexpectedly high US inflation suggests that a fast return to neutral funds rate – 2½% on the Fed’s calculation or about 2% on market...

In the final episode of Matthew Kidman's Success and More Interesting Stuff podcast series, he spoke with market legend, Peter Morgan. Peter was instrumental in the...

It’s official. As announced on 19 July, the United States National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) determined that last year’s US recession* ended in April – just...

Visibility to recovery helped value shares outperform by a wide margin. Better growth prospects for the next two years at a fraction of the price could be the impetus...

How do you spot the coming shift from growth to value? Ride the winners. That’s the obvious investment strategy favoured at the end of a cycle. It’s easy, really. Just...

The year 2020 presented a range of firsts for many, including a global pandemic resulting in a very short-lived but deep COVID-19 recession, exacerbated by government...

Having started in funds management right after the ’87 crash, Anton Tagliaferro thought he had a good grip on the business cycle. Economies boom, stock prices go up,...

Have you ever heard of the Depression of 1920-1921? In the U.S., where historical data are extensive, reliable and widely available, it was painfully sharp but...

Value stocks have copped a hammering in recent years, but there are several reasons why the investing style isn't fundamentally broken. The last decade or so has not...

Local market started negative on global investor selling on currency trade before returning to buy some back in the back half of the day as AUDUSD recovered to finish...

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated shutdowns of economic activity are an enormous negative growth shock that is causing unprecedentedly deep recessions almost...

The recovery in the Australian equity market from the lows in March has left some investors perplexed. How can equity markets be rising when the real economy has...

The World Wide Pandemic Recession of 2020 will end. History is clear – all recessions have a start and an end. An economic downturn is always followed by economic...

For investors reliant on income, the current economic outlook appears bleak. Where should they look for yield? Many newspapers talk about investors as a single group,...

“It far better to light the candle than to curse the darkness” William L. Watkinson, 1907Australia is almost certainly experiencing a recession. Yet, while consensus...

Fixed income is marketed to investors as a defensive asset class, as a general rule offering principal and income security combined with liquidity. That is the major...

Earlier this week I published a wire in which one of Australia’s most experienced investors, Robert Millner, Chairman of Washington H Soul Pattinson, raised an...