The usual stock market mantra is that you sell on the rumour and buy on the fact. With a significant rally ensuing after Donald Trump’s surprise election win, is it the same here? Should you sell now that the new President has been inaugurated and the risks of a Trump... Show More
Following the US election, we have seen bond rates continuing to increase, a stronger US dollar, firmer commodity prices, and a US stock market at all-time highs. Show More
In The AFR I reflect on the puzzling conflicts between the equity and debt market reactions to the emergence of President-elect Donald Trump: stock-jockies have ignored higher future interest rates---and hence a higher opportunity cost of capital used to discount listed company cash-flows back to the present day---and are instead... Show More
The Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) Global Fund Manager Survey for November has just been released. The survey was conducted from 9 to 14 November, i.e. after the US election results were known. Responses were provided by 177 fund managers from around the world with combined assets under management... Show More
Ardea have been monitoring markets closely over the past 24 hours as you can imagine, and while the volatility has been significant, we think overall these events are favourable for markets and good for investors. Show More
In a turnaround almost identical to the UK Brexit vote, the US confounded all the pollsters by electing billionaire Donald Trump as the 45th President of the USA. And just like Brexit, initial share market reaction was very negative as the probability of a Trump win increased during vote counting... Show More
Steve Johnson from Forager Funds and Peter Hall from Hunter Hall Global Value (ASX:HHV) share their views on the prospect of investing in the Trump era. The discussion touches on the immediate implications for investors, how this political event could impact the outlook for interest rates and US stock valuations.... Show More
Irrespective of the initial market reaction, I do not think that the outcome of the US presidential election dictates how the markets will act in the long-term. There have been numerous studies which have shown that the presidential outcomes have limited impact on the performance of the US market and... Show More
Americans are heading to vote in the US elections, some like never before and some armed with placards – the result could be ugly but at least it will be entertaining. Australians meanwhile are watching on like its Cup Day as many business leaders hope that it will improve global... Show More
"Based on our review, we have not changed our conclusion that we expressed in July with respect to Secretary Clinton," FBI chief James Comey said in a letter to Congress on Sunday, US time. Bookmakers are now offering $1.20 for a Clinton victory vs. $5 for a Trump victory. Meanwhile,... Show More
It was a quiet week this week as Victorians enjoyed the Spring Racing Carnival. Next week promises to be anything but quiet with the much anticipated US presidential election. This time next week we'll be talking about either President-elect Trump or President-elect Clinton... A scary thought. In the meantime, Shane... Show More
Market took a break from taking a belting as the US futures turned positive during our lunch time. US Fed sat on the hands as expected while BOE expected to follow the no action camp. The macro risk of US elections has been weighing on the market. The market prefers... Show More
Perhaps the best that can be said of the US election is that it will soon be over. While polls had been moving in favour of a Clinton victory, the FBI's announcement that it is examining new emails in relation to her use of a private email server while Secretary... Show More
We all want to pick a winner on Melbourne Cup Day! So once a year, on the first Tuesday in November, we become experts – scrupulously studying form guides, watching the movement in TAB odds and calling ‘mates’ you haven’t spoken to for 11 months and 29 days for an... Show More
The election is less than three weeks away and it looks increasingly likely we're going to see another Clinton in the White House - see the chart from Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com. For those not familiar, Nate Silver called 100% of states correctly in 2008 and 49 out of 50 in... Show More
The US election is looming on Tuesday 8th November; personally, I would rather vote on a Saturday like we do. Currently, the polls have Hillary Clinton marginally ahead, but we all saw with BREXIT that there could be a huge margin for error in polls, especially when the race for... Show More
How will the US presidential contest between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump shape Q416? Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank, explains his view on what awaits us. Speaking from New York, he says that it is clear that the US is in a state of emergency outside its major... Show More
The 8 November US Presidential election is looming as a significant event for investors (and the world) given the “policies” of Republican candidate Donald Trump. The smoothest outcome for investors would be a Clinton victory but Republicans continuing to control the House of Representatives, i.e., more of the same. But... Show More
Since the surprise FOMC rate hike in 1994, the FOMC has never raised rates, or cut them, without the ‘pre-approval’ of the Fed Funds Futures (FFF) market. If history holds, the FFF would need to price more than 60% probability before the FOMC would act. Yellen and Stanley Fisher are... Show More