Much has been made over whether the flattening of the yield curve is signalling an increased risk of recession in the US. Yet the key is not whether the yield curve is flattening but, as events in the 1990’s demonstrated, whether a central bank is ahead or behind the inflation... Show More
2018 has been, so far, a year of transformational markets driven by populism, politics and policy. Tectonic plates are shifting under the market, and investors are rightly nervous. Despite nearer term fluctuations, U.S. equity markets still remain close to record valuations while looking fatigued. Meanwhile, Quantitative Easing (QE) is being... Show More
The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25% as expected to the upper band target of 1.75%, 0.25% higher than that of the RBA cash rate. The Fed rationalised the increase noting the strengthening of the economic outlook in recent months. Show More
2017 saw a combination of solid economic growth without a significant pick-up in inflation. This let the Fed continue to raise rates, but at a measured pace, and it has flagged it’s likely to raise rates another three times this year. Other major central banks did not follow this path... Show More
Local market flip flopped to deliver a slight positive day despite big bounce in AUDUSD/commodities and a fall in bond yields. July count sits at 10 up days and 9 down days…we have had the first 3 consecutive positive days in July. Expect a run to finish July in positive... Show More
Local market was once again up on global investor currency trade. Weaker USD is bad for Japanese Manufacturers and good for Aussie Banks. Even miners recovered on stable China data while beaten up retailers saw some love on value and on rate-cut hope after another weak consumer sentiment. The best... Show More
Local market bounced hard as global investors jumped on our banks on the currency bet going into US Fed meeting. The market is worried that US Fiscal delays and patchy economic data to drive a downgrade in US Fed outlook and bring down the USD. AUDUSD likely stay strong on... Show More
Local market recovered from the fall at the open on the back of Chinese CPI data showing prices coming off. The market started to see the potential of the Chinese leadership to pump some cash to stimulate the economy while covering the June seasonal cash squeeze. Miners outperformed the market... Show More
Local market fell on the open before recovering to finish a positive day on the back of the Chinese NPC update despite US Fed chair JY more or less confirming the rate rise cycle. Resources and TLS drove the market higher while Consumer Discretionary and Health Care weighed on the... Show More
Local market fell on the open and then recovered some losses to give up substantial part of yesterday’s gains. Markets are working through the implications of increased fiscal spending without spending cuts…likely to drive inflation higher and force US Fed to move faster than expected. US Fed rate hike March... Show More
Market moved up again on global positive sentiment ahead of the US Fed update to be only 40 points off the 2016 high…but on accumulation (i.e. dividends included) basis we are at all-time highs (i.e. created a new high today). The positive performers today were led by Discretionary retail and... Show More
Aussie market fell on the open before a mid-day bounce ran into more selling. The reporting season is over as far as the market is concerned. We are back into macro madness. There are a few next week but the main course is done as far silly season is concerned.... Show More
Aussie market fell on the open with weak resources and banks while a mid-day recovery on supermarket short covering before falling again. The main story for the day was the Supermarkets and the outperformance in all three stocks were mainly due to short covering as the outlook remains weak and... Show More
Following suggestions that the US Federal Reserve is ready to raise interest rates in coming months, all that matters right now in the market is the Fed and USD, says Saxo Capital Market’s Global Macro Strategist Kay Van-Petersen. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Friday that the central bank could... Show More
Aussie market was hammered due to strengthening USD after US Fed minutes pointed to rate rise cycle. The rising USD took down commodity prices and currencies everywhere. Resources were the most beaten up today and that may last a few more weeks as every US data confirming potential rate rise... Show More
Aussie market managed to finish in the black after the bank sector flip flopped between positive and negative. Iron Ore continues to fall while Oil saw support from signs of long term exploration expenditure reduction and Canadian wildfire. Commodities are under risk after China trade data shows weakness and Shanghai... Show More
Aussie market finished slightly in the black after flip flopping all day. The commodities were stable overnight, but have started to show weakness as Chinese markets are down 3%. AUDUSD is now below 74 cents and RBA data points to more rate cuts coming. The economy is weak despite the... Show More
Equities will continue to benefit from global demand for better than bond yield income streams from the rising older demographic.Australia will continue to attract recession fears as the country sleepwalks through a low growth global economic transition. Corporates are expected to protect their balance sheets, cut costs, buy-back shares, drive... Show More
Aussie market started negative and finished negative after pulling back to even on the back of banks. The market was a tale of two cities. Resources maintain the negative sentiment as commodity prices pullback and the Financials were showing strength with Banks and Property Trusts leading the way. Banks are... Show More
Aussie market started strong and finished stronger on the back of commodity strength with banks joining the up run. We remain positive on the banks while we remain cautious on the recent leg of the commodity run. The trend is very similar to last year as the seasonality effect and... Show More
