Much has been made over whether the flattening of the yield curve is signalling an increased risk of recession in the US. Yet the key is not whether the yield curve is flattening but, as events in the 1990’s demonstrated, whether a central bank is ahead or behind the inflation... Show More
2018 has been, so far, a year of transformational markets driven by populism, politics and policy. Tectonic plates are shifting under the market, and investors are rightly nervous. Despite nearer term fluctuations, U.S. equity markets still remain close to record valuations while looking fatigued. Meanwhile, Quantitative Easing (QE) is being... Show More
The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25% as expected to the upper band target of 1.75%, 0.25% higher than that of the RBA cash rate. The Fed rationalised the increase noting the strengthening of the economic outlook in recent months. Show More
2017 saw a combination of solid economic growth without a significant pick-up in inflation. This let the Fed continue to raise rates, but at a measured pace, and it has flagged it’s likely to raise rates another three times this year. Other major central banks did not follow this path... Show More
Local market flip flopped to deliver a slight positive day despite big bounce in AUDUSD/commodities and a fall in bond yields. July count sits at 10 up days and 9 down days…we have had the first 3 consecutive positive days in July. Expect a run to finish July in positive... Show More
Local market was once again up on global investor currency trade. Weaker USD is bad for Japanese Manufacturers and good for Aussie Banks. Even miners recovered on stable China data while beaten up retailers saw some love on value and on rate-cut hope after another weak consumer sentiment. The best... Show More
Local market bounced hard as global investors jumped on our banks on the currency bet going into US Fed meeting. The market is worried that US Fiscal delays and patchy economic data to drive a downgrade in US Fed outlook and bring down the USD. AUDUSD likely stay strong on... Show More
Local market recovered from the fall at the open on the back of Chinese CPI data showing prices coming off. The market started to see the potential of the Chinese leadership to pump some cash to stimulate the economy while covering the June seasonal cash squeeze. Miners outperformed the market... Show More
Local market fell on the open before recovering to finish a positive day on the back of the Chinese NPC update despite US Fed chair JY more or less confirming the rate rise cycle. Resources and TLS drove the market higher while Consumer Discretionary and Health Care weighed on the... Show More
Local market fell on the open and then recovered some losses to give up substantial part of yesterday’s gains. Markets are working through the implications of increased fiscal spending without spending cuts…likely to drive inflation higher and force US Fed to move faster than expected. US Fed rate hike March... Show More
