Rates are rising in the US, but it is less clear when Australia will follow suit. At our recent Investment Forum, we hosted six of Australia’s top investment strategists to discuss when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might hike, and to ask several other key questions, including where they... Show More
Perhaps to say that there is complacency in the market is too broad a generalisation, it just seems like there are just so many contradictions out there currently. Equities and fixed income markets are saying very different things; while the S+P 500 and VIX are very sanguine, US bonds are... Show More
The first month of the year should help set the tone for the remainder of 2017. One of the most important takeaways from recent market activity has been the shift in the perceived importance of event risk. The voice of central bankers has seemingly witnessed a decibel level drop as... Show More
The Federal Reserve managed to out-dove the markets yet again in September and now view interest rates as only ‘moderately accommodating’. Given how quickly their estimates of the neutral rate are falling they may well have completed the tightening cycle after only 1 hike. The clear message from the three... Show More
Since 2011, the constant descent into deflation has benefitted assets that have interest rate exposure or directly benefit from falling inflation. This includes such assets as government bonds, credit securities, shares in industrial companies, property, and infrastructure. Assets that benefit from rising inflation include inflation-linked bonds, shares in resources companies,... Show More
In this Livewire Exclusive video, Vimal Gor, Head of Fixed Interest & Income at BT Investment Management, described Yellen’s recent speech at Jackson Hole, "The Federal Reserve's monetary policy toolkit: Past, present, and future" as a ‘damp squib’, i.e.: a ‘fizzer’. He says: “There have been lots of conversation about... Show More
Nothing to see here, move along; the risk-on move since the Brexit vote has been nothing short of outstanding. Emerging markets are the flavour of the month and inflows into high yield and low-grade bonds are at record highs. What’s not to like? Nothing at all. I often think our... Show More
We believe the Brexit vote was a symptom and not the cause of the underlying economic and political issues globally; the average voter feels abandoned by the economic and political elite and are making their voices heard. This is a secular not cyclical shift and we believe it will have... Show More
The argument used by China bulls is that the government still has an incredible amount of control over all the risk factors that any crisis can be ‘managed through’, and while this can result in a delay in the inevitable, the inevitable will come one day. The reality of China’s... Show More
Corporate credit markets are viewed by many as a key indicator to the health of equity markets. In a recent letter to clients Ben Griffiths of the Eley Griffiths Group made the following observations about the US high yield bond markets; "In mid 2007, this important component of the bond... Show More
Markets remain uncertain and volatile in the wake of Janet Yellen’s decision to keep US rates on hold. With risk assets searching for direction Livewire spoke with Vimal Gor, Head of Income & Fixed Interest at BT Investment Management, to get his views on where interest rates are headed and... Show More
When the latest Fed minutes were released, the probability of a Fed hike in September decreased from a half to about a third. More importantly though, more than a full 25bp rate hike was taken out of the curve from mid-2016 Show More
Crispin Murray, Head of Equities at BT Investment Management, says that despite the challenging economic environment there remain a number of reasons to be positive on the outlook for equities. Firstly, Murray points to the high levels of cash sitting on the sidelines. “Term deposits as a percentage of the... Show More
