Market is flip-flopping between aimlessness and profit taking mode ahead of the EU breakup worries and US Fed raising rates. Market continues to struggle with historically high commodity prices with historically high USD while US rates are going up and US volatility is going down….something has to give and that is likely to be the stretched US markets!!! Global markets have had a post US election relief rally. We would have had a rally either way due to two key reasons…inflation already started rising in US and political certainty post-election. We don’t see the inflation growing out of control in the US and the most likely scenario is for the US Fed to flatten out the curve while raising in Dec. Locally we don’t see any chance of a rate rise in 2017 while rising AUD and retail price war will keep inflation lower than expected. RBA will follow the US Fed in chasing inflation than trying to get in front of it. For the full report… (VIEW LINK)
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