Mathan Somasundaram

Afternoon report and wrap on the days trading, the local market had a strong day led by the banks which were spurred on by comments from the US Fed Chair


  1. Local market had a cracker day on the back of the banks as US rate cycle optimism moved higher after Fed chair talked it up.
  2. Local market index starting to look stretched once again despite pricing in the PE premium for yield. Technically the market is making the double top….i.e. Dec high just above 5800. The two key sectors are priced on US rate cycle and China commodity prices. The commodity prices are likely to remain robust even with a pullback while the US interest rate cycle unlikely to deliver substantial growth for Banks as RBA sits on its hands.
  3. US Fed updates are in play for the next month (1) Chair Janet Yellen continues her Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress tonight (2) Minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting will be released on the 22nd (3) FOMC’s next meeting on 14/15th March.
  4. China inflation continues its move back up while steel stockpile starts to ask questions on Iron Ore and Coal demand remaining at current levels.
  5. US economy got more ticks from Fed chair Yellen while corporate capex outlook remains weak and raises questions about future growth. 6. US politics ran into risk territory with resignations and court challenges.
  6. Market optimism is reaching far for growth…Apple is starting to price in potential Augmented Reality feature into the next iPhone in late 2017.
  7. US rate cycle is getting pushed up after Fed chair update…that will push up USD as well as drag all global yields higher. 9. Japanese economy continues to struggle with demographic issues in the labor market…

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