7 biggest ASX 200 Buy and Sell broker moves this month

Ongoing market volatility can prove to be frustrating for investors, especially when it translates to moribund returns. But volatility creates opportunity, and the ASX is currently short of neither.

But what are the stocks that are now presenting opportunities, and equally importantly, which are the ones to avoid? 

Here are the stocks that have seen the most meaningful broker re-ratings in June, including a highflying AI stock with more room to grow, and a bluechip miner that one broker thinks could go backwards. 

THE BUYS

Here are some of the key new Buy (or equivalent) ratings that brokers have issued in June:

IDP Education (ASX: IEL)

• Broker: UBS
• Rating: Upgraded to Buy
• Price target: $3.45
• Potential: 50%

IDP Education has been one of the ASX's quietly dramatic stories over the last decade. After riding a demand wave that continued through Covid, the education placement provider is now down 94% from its 2021 high.

It has faced challenging headwinds as all four key markets, including the UK and Australia have looked to clamp down on student visa numbers, prompting the company to take action on costs.

But it has delivered better-than-expected results on that front, says Morgans, with FY26 adjusted EBIT now expected to rise 2.5% to $122 million. The broker says it is "willing to look through a cyclically depressed valuation" given structural demand still remains and further cost reductions in FY27.

It has revised its rating to Buy, and is now targeting a share price of $3.45, suggesting 24% upside from current prices. Interestingly, Morgans still trails other brokers, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, which are still targeting a share price around $5, suggesting more than 100% upside from current prices. 

Broker consensus is targeting a $4.00 share price, suggesting 74% upside, with UBS also recently upgrading its price target to $5.15.

Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC)

• Broker: Macquarie
• Rating: Upgraded to Outperform from Neutral
• Price target: $22
• Potential: 13%

Rare earths have emerged as one of the key battlegrounds in the ongoing deglobalisation theme playing out on the geopolitical stage. With China controlling much of the world's supply, Lynas enjoys a strategic premium as the world's leading ex-China producer of rare earths.

According to Macquarie, it's a bullish setup for LYC, despite a recent setback in its approval process for its Malaysian advanced materials plant (LAMP) expansion. 

"We believe China’s export control list could delay ex-China rare earth supply growth, tightening the market and reinforcing LYC’s strategic premium as the largest ex-China separated rare earths producer."

Consensus price target is $21.45, suggesting 10.4% upside, but Macquarie is now targeting a price of $22, with 13% upside, given its historic trading multiple. 

"LYC’s share price has also shown resilience relative to underlying NdPr prices in recent years. Since 2025, the stock has consistently traded above 15x EV/EBITDA. We lift our target multiple from 12x to 15x, with China’s latest export control measures representing a potential re-rating catalyst for LYC."

Treasury Wine Estates (ASX: TWE)

• Broker: Citi
• Rating: Upgraded to Buy from Neutral
• Price target: $5.50
• Potential: 18%
  

Beleaguered alcohol retailer and owner of Penfolds, Treasury Wines has seen its earnings hit by softening US and China markets and has been a regular fixture on the list of most-shorted ASX stocks. 

But Citi is now more positive on the company's mid-term outlook, with management announcing plans to improve transparency and consumer focus, as well as simplify its portfolio, including a consolidation of its brands to 30 from 76.

The broker also believes a strategic review of the US business will be well-received by investors, with early findings showing strong luxury brand positioning. 

Management is targeting long-term EBITS margin above 25%, with FY26 earnings expected between $480-490 million, and FY27 to at least match that range. It is also targeting cost savings of $100 million over the next three years. 

Broker consensus suggests upside potential of 8.6%, with a consensus price target of $5.06. 

Megaport (ASX: MP1)

• Broker: Bank of America
• Rating: Upgraded to Buy
• Price target: $25.50
• Potential: 23%

Data centre network specialist Megaport is the ASX 200's best-performing stock in 2026, thanks in part to a recent pivot towards becoming an AI compute provider. It is raising $827 million to build out its AI inference service, and has secured $459 million in contracts. 

MP1 had already been a Strong Buy, according to broker consensus, and BofA's revised price target is now above broker consensus ($22.57), and suggesting upside potential of 23%. 

THE SELLS

Here are some of the key new Sell (or equivalent) ratings that brokers have issued in June:

Transurban Group (ASX: TCL)

• Broker: Morgans
• Rating: Downgraded to Sell from Hold 
• Price target: $12.50
• Potential: -18%

Toll road operator Transurban has enjoyed a strong first half of 2026, with the TCL share price up 8.25%. But this has prompted a number of broker downgrades, with macro pressures weighing on its elevated valuation multiple.

The company's May traffic data showed traffic growth was broadly flat at 0.1%, and its distribution yield had now fallen below the 10-year bond level. It also divested away from the Canada market with the sale of the Montreal A25 road at a loss to original acquisition value.  

Morgans highlighted that weaker traffic growth and a higher interest rate environment were not being reflected in TCL's recent strong share price performance, and as a result was revising it downward to a Sell. 

The broker consensus price is $13.79, suggesting 9.5% downside, while Morgans' $12.50 price target suggests 18% downside. 

a2 Milk (ASX: A2M)

• Broker: CLSA
• Rating: Downgraded to Underperform from Outperform
• Price target: $3.80
• Potential: -45%

It's been a topsy-turvy few months for a2 Milk. A voluntary product recall in the US saw the stock drop further following the broader market selloff in April. It has now bounced 25% in June, and has now received SAMR approval for its infant formula label transition in China.

But wide broker forecasts on FY27e EBITDA (NZ$296-415 million) and NPAT (NZ$189-285 million) show the uncertainty surrounding its medium-term outlook.

It's no surprise then that it's one of the ASX stocks with the most broker divergence, even if many have revised price targets lower. CLSA is the most bearish, and is now targeting a price of $3.80, having revised downward from $10.60. That price implies a downside of 45%, but it's worth noting this rating was revised before A2M's June recovery. 

Other brokers remain broadly neutral, with many targeting a price in the range of $6-8. Citi recently upgraded its Sell rating back to Neutral, with broker consensus suggesting a price of $7.88 with upside potential of 14.3%.

Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO)

• Broker: RBC
• Rating: Downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform
• Price target: $143
• Potential: -17.5%

Up 17% year-to-date, and around 75% in the last 12 months, off strong copper and aluminium prices, Rio has been a popular pick with investors looking for yield-generating, defensive stocks. 

With current spot prices, Rio's balance sheet is trending towards net cash, but like many miners, current valuations have made the risk/reward tradeoff more precarious. 

RBC is certainly seeing things that way, and has downgraded Rio on valuation metrics and potential weakness in the iron ore market. It is now targeting a price of $143, a slight revision from its previous target of $141.

However, it has broken ranks somewhat with consensus, with the majority remaining a Hold on the miner and targeting a consensus price of $173.26, identical to the current price at the time of publication.