Analysts seem to be questioning the market's ability to continue to set new highs. After all, US equities have been in a bull market basically since 2009. The S&P 500 is already up over 28% for the year - over 35% if you take the last 52-week period. As equity valuations climb into what appears to be overbought territory, a variety of analysts have been making noise about a looming selloff in stocks. Nevertheless, investors don't appear to be worried. The VIX is trading at just over 12, and not far off of its 52-week lows, suggesting the overall investor fear level is at a minimum. I see only two realistic scenarios which could derail the rally over the next couple months - Fed tapering and political deadlock over the budget. In either case, I don't see anything happening in the near future.
I'm an investments analyst for a US-based independent investment research firm. My focus is on economics, options, and all types of stocks, but especially tech, Internet, and renewable energy companies. I have experience as a options market...
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Agree. US stock markets are now in multi-year highs. 10-year Treasury yields are hovering close to 3.0 percent. 30-year mortgage rates are expected to head higher. The US housing market could also be heading to a slowdown. 2014 could be another slow year according to the IMF, World Bank. Agree with you analysis.