As iron ore prices top $140/tonne, Kevin Rudd is declaring emphatically the end of the China mining boom. BHP Billiton thinks global demand for mine output will rise 75% over the next 15 years or about 3.5% a year. The ABS puts Australian mining volume growth between 2002/03 and 2011/12 at 3.0% a year. BHP is effectively saying growth prospects are better after the boom than before. So, too, is the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics which has forecast 5.1% annual growth to 2018. There are risks in Australia's reliance on China and not all miners are good investments but the Rudd comments, repeated often enough, needlessly promote a negative view of the sector, especially at the retail end of the investment market when a more nuanced understanding of what is happening is warranted.
John Robertson is Chief Investment Strategist for PortfolioDirect a provider of resource sector investment stock ratings and portfolio strategies for mining and oil and gas investors. He has worked as a policy economist, corporate business...
Well I would suggest we won't hear to much more of that post September and a change in the winds for resource stocks would be nice. Although the early gains have already been made from the recent lows in the likes of BHP and RIO