ASX insiders get back to buying in volatile March quarter - who's been making moves?

Last time we ran an Insider Moves update in October, the Aussie market was flying - trading near all-time highs. As such, there simply wasn't much opportunity for insiders to buy when their stock was 'cheap' - the well-established condition (both through research and this column's own analysis) under which insiders typically buy their own stock. 

With markets taking a hit from myriad factors (the SaaSpocolypse, war, inflation, higher interest rates and expectations of more hikes to come), it will be interesting to see what the data bears out for the March quarter. 

Prior to looking at the data, my bet was that more insiders would have been buying stock on both short and long-term weakness. 

Refresher on the research

For those new to the series, here is some important background information.

When multiple insiders buy or sell, it can tell an interesting story. Don't forget that these insiders are all sitting around the same boardroom table and responding to the same stimulus.

As explained in the first wire that introduced this series, research shows that the percentage of insider trades decreases as the share price moves from 52-week lows towards 52-week highs. Put simply, insiders buy more when their stocks are 'cheap' and buy less when they are 'expensive'.

Even with many ASX companies (north of 80% for the ASX 100) having policies that require board members to hold stock in a company, they typically have long periods (up to 5 years) to acquire the stock to meet the requirements, so they still have the ability to attempt buying when the stock is 'cheap'.  

This is why it is interesting to examine share price movements over 3-month and 1-year periods alongside transaction sets to establish the conditions under which insiders are making moves. All the data we have examined, including that in this update, aligns with the long-term research.

Please note that these are simply observations based on the data. We cannot possibly know the true motives behind any director's buying or selling of stock in their own company (unless they disclose them to the market). The data includes on-market transactions. It does not include rights issues, participation in off-market share purchase plans, options exercised, or dividend reinvestment plans.

The latest numbers - Transactions that involved NET BUYING

As expected, both the number of sets of transactions and the percentage of directors ‘buying both weaknesses were up significantly from the September 2025 quarter to the recently concluded March quarter.

In the September quarter last year, there were 22 sets (a set = three directors or more) of transactions involving net buying – the lowest count since we began the series. Again, with markets rallying, there hasn’t been much opportunity to buy stock ‘cheap’ – the dominant condition under which insiders typically buy.

Out of those 22 sets, 10 involved ‘buying both weakness’ (i.e. buying on both 3-month and 1-year weakness) – a percentage of 45.5%, which is on par with the average over previous quarters of around 48%.

For the recently completed March quarter, there were 40 sets of transactions, of which 26 (65%) involved ‘buying both weakness’ - in other words, insiders leaned decisively into weakness, with the majority of activity occurring where stocks had fallen over both 3 months and 1 year.

The sharp increase in transaction sets - up more than 80% quarter-on-quarter - also reinforces how quickly insider behaviour shifts as markets move from strength to weakness.

OBSERVATIONS

• Of the 40 sets of transactions that involved NET BUYING, 26 of them saw that buying on both 3-month and 1-year weakness - This is once again the dominant category in the data, with insiders buying when their stock is 'cheap'
• 10 sets involved buying on 3-month weakness (whilst the 1-year performance was positive) - these are the 'dip buyers'
• Three sets saw insiders buying both strength - these are the 'momentum riders'
• One set saw insiders buying on 3-month strength (despite 1-year negative performance) - this cohort is buying the recovery.

Transactions that involved NET SELLING

• Of the 10 sets of transactions that involved NET SELLING, four sets saw selling on 1-year strength (EOS, CGF, RPL, SLX) - interestingly, some of the 1-year moves in this cohort were quite strong: EOS up 568%, Challenger up 38%, SILEX up 52%
• 3 sets involved selling both strength (STO, WHC, ALK)
• 2 sets involved selling both weakness (VSL, JDO)
• 1 set involved selling 3-month strength (QBE)

INTERESTING OBSERVATIONS

1. Seek (ASX: SEK) - Insiders go on buying spree

In a post-results hot take, Market Matters' James Gerrish had the following to say about Seek: 

“I thought it was a good result… they’re controlling what they need to control”. However, “the AI narrative is still really impacting Seek and I think there’s some validity in that.”

He wants clearer evidence that AI integration will drive sustainable benefit.

“It’s an okay result, good result. But there are too many uncertainties at the moment for Seek.”

The chart below shows where and when Seek insiders were buying recently. 

2. Pro Medicus (ASX: PME) - Founders adding to holdings

In a recent wire by my colleague Vishal Teckchandani, Ten Cap's Jun Bei Liu said the following about Pro Medicus; 

“Hospitals cannot function efficiently without imaging platforms. The software improves workflow, reduces diagnostic time, and integrates into core hospital systems. That’s not discretionary spend.”

Bei Liu has been a long-term backer of PME, and she continues to like it. The chart below shows where and when PME insiders were buying recently.  

3. Worley (ASX: WOR) - CEO John Grill betting big

Buying from CEO John Grill at Worley Limited stands out.

Large, concentrated insider purchases – particularly from senior executives – often carry more signalling power than broad-based buying.

4. REA Group (ASX: REA) - Irresistible value?

Perhaps the poster child for the SaaSpocalypse, REA Group has suffered a dramatic fall in recent months. Still, there are numerous managers who have been buying the weakness and believe the sell-off has been overdone. 

In a recent interview with Livewire's Tom Stelzer, Auscap's Will Mumford said the following about REA Group; 

"Right now, Realestate.com.au is trading on a P/E multiple of about 28 times. It's growing earnings at about 15% per annum at a return on equity of about 30%. It's got really strong financials and its P/E multiple is, again, lower than where it was in March 2020."

The chart below shows where and when REA insiders were buying recently.  

Applying the lens

Insider buying is never a signal in isolation, but it is a useful lens.

Right now, that lens is telling a consistent story: as volatility has returned and valuations have reset, insiders are stepping back in - with many buying near what are 52-week lows for their respective share prices. 

Not everywhere, and not blindly, but with enough conviction to suggest that, in many cases, the market may have moved ahead of the fundamentals.