Bids, beats and bumper dividends. Reporting season takes a positive turn

Please note, this interview was recorded today - 20 February 2026. 

With reporting season taking a positive turn, I had a conversation with James Gerrish of Market Partners to get his hot take on a big week, the key beats and misses, and what he's keeping an eye on for the rest of the season.

Stocks covered include:

• Bluescope Steel (ASX: BSL)
• JB Hi-Fi (ASX: JBH)
  
• Seek (ASX: SEK)
• Goodman Group (ASX: GMG)
• Telstra (ASX: TLS)
• Transurban (ASX: TCL)
• QBE Insurance Group (ASX: QBE)

INTERVIEW SUMMARY

Solid season, brutal reactions

More than 70 companies reported this week, including heavyweights like BHP, Rio Tinto, Wesfarmers, Telstra and Goodman Group, as the ASX 200 pushed to fresh all-time highs. For James Gerrish, Portfolio Manager at Market Matters and Market Partners, the tone has been clear.

“Overall, I’d describe it as a pretty solid reporting season so far,” he says.

The big caps have largely delivered, particularly the miners. “BHP was particularly good. Telstra yesterday was really interesting… overall it’s probably more positive out of this last week’s reporting period.”

But the key feature hasn’t just been the numbers. It’s the reaction.

“There’s been this continued bidding up of those companies that report well… but also the pretty aggressive selling of any companies that underwhelmed the market.”

In other words, the market is rewarding execution and punishing disappointment without mercy.

BlueScope: strength under pressure

BlueScope’s result was broadly in line, but the bigger story remains the takeover interest.

“The big change in this result was a big uptick in the dividend,” Gerrish says. “Operationally, they’re performing really well and if you’re under takeover, that’s what you want to be doing. You want to be coming from a position of strength.”

With the stock trading below the prevailing bid, capital management and cost cuts are strengthening the board’s hand.

“BlueScope for mine is coming from a position of strength and it’ll be interesting to see how it plays out.”

JB Hi-Fi: better than feared

JB Hi-Fi continues to defy its sceptics. It was supposed to die into COVID. It was supposed to die coming out of COVID, but the share price rallied 7% on solid earnings. 

The share price context matters, says Gerrish. The stock is down materially from previous highs.

“I actually thought it was a really good result relative to where the share price is trading… we’ve turned more positive on JB Hi-Fi after this week’s update.”

Seek and the AI overhang

Seek delivered solid numbers, but the share price remains hostage to the AI narrative.

“I thought it was a good result… they’re controlling what they need to control,” Gerrish says. However, “the AI narrative is still really impacting Seek and I think there’s some validity in that.”

He wants clearer evidence that AI integration will drive sustainable benefit.

“It’s an okay result, good result. But there are too many uncertainties at the moment for Seek.”

Goodman: good numbers, missing upgrades

Goodman Group beat expectations, largely on development earnings, but the stock fell.

“I think it was slightly above expectations,” Gerrish says. The pullback likely reflected the absence of new data centre leasing updates and the lack of upgrades.

“Goodman has traditionally been this stock that underpromises and then upgrades as the year progresses. We haven’t seen those upgrades come through for the last couple of years.”

At roughly 23 times earnings and growing near 10%, he still sees value.

“With the share price around 30 bucks, I think it is still a buy at these levels.”

Telstra and Transurban: certainty in demand

Telstra delivered predictability in an uncertain market.

“There’s something to say about predictability in this market,” he says.

Mobile growth and cost control drove the result. But at current levels, Gerrish is cautious.

“At $5.20… that’s getting on the rich side.”

Transurban’s selloff, meanwhile, looked macro-driven.

“To me, it was more of a macro-driven sell-off than anything,” he says, pointing to bond yield movements. If rate hikes prove limited, “Transurban will benefit.”

QBE: strong and improving

QBE was one of the standouts.

“This is a stock we own that’s reported well this morning.”

ROE approached 20%, above its 15% target, and simplification in North America is working.

“This was a really strong result… the stock should be up 6%. It should probably be up more than 6% in our view.”

The outlook: cautiously optimistic

Across the season, outlook statements have been “cautiously optimistic.”

Consumer-facing names show early signs of softness, particularly after recent rate increases. “The consumer is okay, but there’s some headwinds on the horizon.”

One dominant theme remains momentum.

“A good result, you probably hold. A good result tends to continue to flow out over the proceeding few days.”

The banks have also surprised on the upside, delivering ahead of expectations and helping push the index to record highs.

“The large parts of the ASX market are performing pretty well… and that’s seeing the market go to all-time highs again.”

Next week brings a broad cross-section: WiseTech, SiteMinder, Fortescue, Light & Wonder, Centuria, Worley and Woolworths.

“We’ll get a good handle on how the overall economic picture in Australia is and what companies are doing for this big, large, uncertain impact from AI.”