ASX to underperform US index by ~5% in quarter, watch for cuts to bank dividends

After the bank-led sell-off the ASX 200 has now underperformed the US S&P500 by more than 6.3% for the month to date. We still have a couple of days trading left, but for the quarter, the Aussie market is heading for a fall of around 5% against a US index which is flat. March is a tricky time for the banks, given that it is half-year reporting time for all except CBA (it is June 30). We have written here as far back as September <a href="https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/29014" target="_blank" data-event-type="click" data-event="link_click">(VIEW LINK)</a> warning that dividend growth is slowing and indeed it is – a consensus of around 15 analysts on Bloomberg shows that dividends will be flat for 2016 (against earlier predictions of growth). But those forecasts were unlikely to have been updated across the board following the announcement by ANZ. In fact, flat would be an excellent outcome. Watch now as the spate of dividend downgrades – and indeed cuts - hits the market in the coming weeks.