Buy Hold Sell: 6 ASX stocks the short sellers love to hate
Short sellers are often described as the smartest money in the room. They borrow shares, sell them on market, and actively bet that the price will fall.
Get it right and the returns can be substantial. Get it wrong and the losses are theoretically unlimited. Just ask the person on Reddit who shorted Korean fried chicken companies then lost it all when pictures of Jensen Huang eating fried chicken in Seoul went viral. I think about them often. Mostly I think - what were they thinking.
In this episode of Buy Hold Sell, we are joined by Michael Wayne from Medallion Financial and Henry Jennings from Marcus Today to work through six of the ASX's most heavily shorted stocks right now.
As Jennings puts it, a big short position doesn't necessarily mean something is wrong - sometimes it's just an easy target. But when you're looking at short interest north of 20% and days to cover that stretch into months of normal volume, there's usually a story underneath that’s worth knowing about.
Let's dive in.
This episode was filmed Wednesday 24th June, 2026.
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Edited transcript
On the flip side, you can be counterintuitive with this. It can often lead to a short covering rally where these shorts don't get it right. The company comes out with some very good news or unexpectedly good news and then all of a sudden these short sellers have to go back on market to buy back that stock, creating on-market demand and often you get these oversized moves to the upside. So on one hand, it can be very insightful as to highlighting something that you might have missed as an investor or some negatives that you might have missed, but on the other hand, it can often present some opportunities. The short sellers don't get it right all the time.
Henry Jennings: Oh, that's a tricky one. There's a lot of people that hate short sellers and they will say they're a curse on the market and you shouldn't have them in the market, but they do provide valuable checks and balances, if you like. And it's hard being a short seller. I've done it before in a previous life and it is hard being a short seller. As Michael says, every now and then you get some piece of good news and then everybody rushes to buy the stock and you get these short sharp spikes up and then the shorts go, "You know what? Yeah, maybe I should come back and short it again." So you do get these spikes, then it comes back down again. It is a warning sign for investors that maybe something is amiss. It doesn't necessarily mean the company share price is not going to go up.
There's plenty of instances we've seen in the past where share price... There was a big short in say Pilbara Minerals for a long, long time and the stock is still going to all-time high. So it doesn't necessarily mean something is wrong. What it usually means is it's an easy target that there are some things that you can pick away at in terms of leaking stuff to the news or in terms of upgrades or downgrades that brokers have and you can exaggerate those. So it's an easy target. And sometimes there's a thing called a pairs trade where you're long something and short something else. So it's about comparative performance sometimes, but certainly some of the stocks that we looked at, they've got big short position, 20%. I mean, that's huge. The days to cover that position can be months of normal volume. So it is something to be aware of certainly for investors.
Henry Jennings: There is. There always are stocks that they get wrong. There always are stocks that they get right. We don't have the same culture in Australia that some overseas have with these big hedge funds and these big research houses put these big short reports out. We don't tend to get those quite as much here. Every now and then you do, but certainly there are some stocks on the list that you think, "You sure? You really sure? Do you really mean that guys?" And gradually, sometimes they get whittled away. You'll see them go from 10% gradually down to 5% over time quietly. The trick is to do it quietly if you're short because you don't want to signal to the market that you're short and you're panicking. Otherwise, everyone just piles on you.
CAR Group (ASX: CAR)
Anna Dadic: Let's start with CAR Group. It's the largest digital classified business on the ASX buy market cap. Henry, I'll start with you on this one. Is CAR Group a buy, hold, or sell?Henry Jennings: (SELL) CAR Group's a tricky one, isn't it? It's kind of the old Fairfax's rivers of gold along with Seek and REA and I call them the old school platform stocks. I'm still quite bearish on CAR Group. I think the jury is out. AI is obviously going to change their business model. It could mean that others come along and disrupt them and it remains to be seen whether AI is a good, is a force for good for CAR or a force for evil for CAR. The share price will tell you that at the moment it's considered a force for evil and the share price has been heading down. I think that's going to continue to be honest. You've got a competition like Facebook Marketplace, which obviously now is a bit of a competition and there's others as well.
They have pushed overseas to try and mitigate that and the technology they've got is good, but I think how easy would it be to replicate that? I don't know. I mean, I'm not a coder, but I think AI is a threat and an opportunity for them. So I'm going to remain negative on it for the time being.
Michael Wayne: (HOLD) It's an interesting one because if you asked me one or two years ago after a fall of this magnitude, car sales would have been an out and out buy. But given the current setup, I'm going to go with a hold. It's obviously pulled back a long way. So far the business on the face of it is untouched in terms of reaffirming guidance on revenues and profitability. The Australian business is more mature. Everyone knows that they are pursuing this aggressive growth overseas, particularly in places like Brazil, where they're seeing a lot of rapid growth. Also in the US, not bad growth as well. But the key question here on everyone's lips is will AI be a positive for them or a negative?
Management have made some noises as well as some of the brokers that it could well be a positive for them in that it helps improve their business model to a degree and ensure that a lot of the leads that do come through are more sticky. However, I think the jury is still out and you'll be making a pretty bold call to predict what's going to happen from here, but it's definitely an entrenched dominant player and you'd have to think that they get first crack, first bite of the cherry when it comes to incorporating AI into their business. So I'm not game enough to ride it off completely and put a sell in it, therefore I'm going to hold.
Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC)
Michael Wayne: (HOLD) Look, I'm a hold on Lynas Group. I understand both the bear and bullish arguments. The reality is, as you say, it's a key rare earth asset really globally outside of China. They've got a very good vertically-integrated presence. They're a very large mine, very high grades, very long mine life and they've got very large strategic importance, not only for Australia, but many of the allied countries, so to speak. So I think that'll enable the business to keep doing quite well. The key elephant in the room, as it is with all these rare earth companies is China. China do limit supply globally and therefore they can control the price significantly in a counterfactual environment.
In theory, if China was to flood the market with rare earth and open up supply to the rest of the world, then arguably the price of these materials drop significantly and a lot of these producers that are more marginal, if you like, outside of China wouldn't be as profitable and that would be bearish. However, it doesn't look like China's willing to break too easily there. So look, I'm constructive on Lynas, but I'm not game enough to give it a buy, so I'm going to stick with a hold on that.
Henry Jennings: (BUY) I don't, but I do agree to some extent to Michael. It's always the old phrase, rare earths aren't that rare. We will say that. They're everywhere. Whether they're economic or not remains to be seen, but the real trick with rare earth is to be able to produce them and to have the refinery. And of course, Lynas have got that refinery in Malaysia. I have to say hats off to Amanda Lacaze. She is retiring after an absolute standout job, she's probably one of the best CEOs in Australia. In fact, she moved up to Malaysia when she took the job. So Pol Le Roux is taking over. So that's going to be interesting. That's going to be interesting. Every new CEO wants to stamp their own imprimatur on the company. So that's going to be interesting. But as Michael says, there's very few opportunities in rare earth, producers of rare earth.
There's lots of wannabes. There's lots of people that say they're going to be... There's lots of focus in the US on rare earths. Donald Trump obviously very keen on them. They've just spent a huge amount of money and wasted a huge amount of missiles in Iran, which they're going to have to replace and rare earths are a part of that as well. So I'm quite positive on Lynas. They have got the big elephants in the room that I guess there's a couple of elephants in the room, but the biggest elephant in the room always is Malaysia and environmental concerns. And I noted the other day they did have some issues with their expansion plan in terms of the environment.
I'm on a buy side of things, but it's never an easy linear run in Lynas. But I think with a new CEO coming, that should reinvigorate things and the strategic push into rare earths are still like that. And it's such a dominant player outside of China and it's a real life producer. So I'm going to stick with a buy on that one.
Endeavour Group (ASX: EDV)
Henry Jennings: Yeah, I think so. I got to say, I think so.
Anna Dadic: Clear sell.
Henry Jennings: (SELL) They had an investor day the other day. They're in the middle of a transformation plan. They've got a new CEO coming from Tennis Australia, Jayne Hrdlicka. The pressure on the consumer is quite great. Dan Murphy's is a category killer, but things are slowing down, less people are drinking, less people are going out to pubs and clubs because of the cost of living pressures and interest rate rises. So I'm just a little bit... I think I would need to see some evidence that their transformation journey is actually being rolled out, as they're saying. And at the moment, it's hard to se a catalyst for such a domestically-focused business where we know the economy is doing that. And young people like yourself, old people like me, of course.
Anna Dadic: Sorry, you're referring to me?
Henry Jennings: Yeah, I know. Well, and Michael, but obviously old people like me continue to drink whatever because we got no choice. But young people are taking that decision to be more healthy and have a healthier lifestyle. I think that does hurt and I just can't see the catalyst. It's going to take a while. You can't turn around and juggernaut in six months. It takes years.
Anna Dadic: Michael, how about you? What's your position on this one?
Michael Wayne: (SELL) I'm going to echo Henry here and go sell. Endeavour, they played around with their shop layouts and their store footprints and they were going for a smaller model away from the large warehouse model. That didn't go so well for them, hence this strategic review and reorganisation of things. The problem that Endeavour has as well is there's extreme competition. Margins are narrowing and already very tight. The demographic shifts that Henry talk about are very real as well, but from an investor who had this position that they got spun out from Woolworths a few years ago, it was a steady, reliable payer of income and of dividends.
However, when you're doing these strategic reviews, you're often spending a lot of money in places and they're already at 70% payout ratio. So I think there's a very good chance and investors are going to be confronted with a dividend cut. Perhaps that's why it's already rerated as far as it has, but these things are never straightforward and never easy. So I think you'll have plenty of opportunity to have a look at this when the news flow improves and there's evidence that this turnaround's taking place. So stick with that sell.
4D Medical (ASX: 4DX)
Michael Wayne: (BUY) Look, it's very, very expensive, but we like this one. This is my first buy of the day. It's one we've held for a while and done quite well off, but it's a very volatile beast. However, the newsflow has been consistently good. They're delivering a large number of contracts. As you say, there's some similarities with Pro Medicus. They're focused on a completely different area being the lungs and imaging the lungs. It's all software, no hardware. They plug into CT scans and it improves the rates of diagnosis or the accuracy of diagnosis, should I say. But similar to Pro Medicus, they started small, they focused on the wealthy university line, hospitals in the US, but they've since had some agreements in place with the Mayo Clinic, which is a very large respected hospital network over the United States. They had a 90-day trial period and that's commenced probably 90 days ago almost now.
So there's some big news potentially on the horizon for 4DX, but in the meantime, these little contracts keep piling up. It's a very high-margin business. So if they can continue to deliver and continue to commercialise, taking advantage of the already DA-approved scan that they've got or technology that they've got then puts them in a very good position to grow into that lofty valuation. But the one caveat is any small hiccup, any underwhelming of results or underwhelming the market could see this thing pull back pretty quickly. So a high risk, but high reward play, and we're comfortable to have a buy on it considering the newsflow's been so good.
Henry Jennings: Tell me the share price and I'll tell you my view.
Michael Wayne: I think it's, what? 4.30 or something.
Henry Jennings: The problem with this one, it's not a problem with it. It is very volatile. The merest whisper and it suddenly is down 10% and then the following day it's up 10%. So it does depend on when you're going to be watching this. But generally 4DX, I do like it as a stock. I was recommending it at 40 cents after Pro Medicus took the 10% strategic position there. I'm absolutely gobsmacked, to be quite honest, that it's still here, that it's still around. I would've thought if you take 10% and it just starts to look really, really good, you just jump on it as Pro Medicus and just take it out of the equation and just absorb it into your business and just take it over. And people used to say, "Do you think 4DX is the next Pro Medicus?" I said, "No, it's not because Pro Medicus should take it out before it gets too big."
So clearly the technology works, CT:VQ, and they're getting lots of contracts in the US, which is good. Once again, we do see the valuation get a little bit ahead of itself, but hey, we've got SpaceX. So we're in fantasy land already, so we might as well keep going. 4DX for me is quality. The management's good. There's some exciting things coming in the pipeline. It is the next gen of lung imaging using AI as well. I think it's quality. I've met the CEO and was very impressed, but as I say, it is volatile. So it could be three bucks, it could be five bucks. It is volatile. But generally, if you see weakness in this one, I think it's a buy and it's an accumulate on any weakness.
Henry Jennings: (BUY) I'm a buy. I've got to be a buyer of 4DX. As I say, we first recommended it at 40 cents. So it's been a 10 bagger plus. A lot of happy punters out there with this one. And I think it's still got potential. I'm just gobsmacked, as I say, that Pro Medicus hasn't gone, "You know what, guys? We'll have that. We'll have that technology. We'll pay..." Six months ago, they could have got it for a snip for what it is now. And the longer it goes on, I guess, the more it's going to cost them.
Zip Co (ASX: ZIP)
Anna Dadic: Okay. Speaking of snip, moving on to Zip, the buy now, pay later service has been one of the ASX's most shorted stocks for years. Henry, the buy now pay letter industry has been pronounced dead many times, but Zip is still standing. What's your position?Henry Jennings: (BUY) I'm still standing. I'm still a buyer. I'm still a fan of Zip, I have to say. They have done a pretty good job in turning things around. And turning their reputation around as well and simplifying the business. They made the mistake of going, "Okay, with buy now, pay later works in Australia, so therefore we're going to roll it out everywhere." And they got a little confused and they got a little bit stretched. Now they have focused on basically the US and the US consumer and that is what's driving the business at the moment. And that the total transaction value is going very well. They might one day even be profitable. I mean, who knows? Stranger things have happened.
But at the end of the day, it is all about the US consumer and the US economy is showing no signs of pulling back at all really. And buy now, pay later is becoming not only for clothes and other things like that and the discretionary items, it's now becoming embedded in an American's way of paying for things, bills, groceries, really dull things. And we can see that it's obviously got its competition with Affirm and Klarna, et cetera, but I think the market is wrong on this one. But it has had some slip ups in the past and you need to keep watching the bad debts in the US. That is the key. If they start rising again, the shorters will be back and they will pummelled it as they tend to do. It had a, what was it? 25%, 30% fall in one day?
Henry Jennings: It was horrible. It was absolutely horrible. It's one of those stocks that is really sentiment driven and they will pounce on any bad news, but as long as that US bad debt situation stays controlled, it should just grind up. Valuations are certainly above a lot where they are at the moment, four bucks plus, but it'll take a while to get there, I think.
Anna Dadic: Michael, do you share Henry's optimism?
Michael Wayne: (HOLD) Not quite. Look, I'm certainly more confident around these prices than when it was at $5, it was a momentum stock there for a while and was pushing ridiculous numbers. But then the February reporting season came and the market had baked in all this optimism and then there was a slight slip up in that I think the bad debt numbers actually did slightly tick up. And then that caused everyone to pause, take heed, and then a lot of the negative shorting came into the stock at that point in time. It's been a wonderful renaissance for this business. This is a business that was doing it very tough. They did that large merger acquisition into the US and it's taken some time to get going, but they're certainly getting traction in the US. Obviously it's off a very small base and there's a lot of competition, but that's really the main game in town these days for them.
I think, look, the US consumer is obviously the other key driver along with bad debts. There was some sentiments that maybe the consumers, not deteriorating in the US, but it wasn't getting any better. So people started to get the sense that perhaps this had peaked in terms of the consumer and there was only downside from there. I'm not game enough at the moment, so I've got to hold. I would rather wait and see how they report come the August reporting season, which isn't too far away now before making a judgement because the momentum has stalled. And there are a few question marks around bad debts, like the consumer going forward and all this discussion of rates potentially going high now in the US when everyone had factored in rate cuts could continue to weigh on the stock. So hold for now.
Droneshield (ASX: DRO)
Michael Wayne: (SELL) I believe so. So I'm going a sell on this. I think it's benefited immensely from, I think, being the only global pure drone shielding technology listed. That's not to say it's not without competition. And you can certainly expect that given the recent warfare types that we've had globally and the prevalence of drones and drone technologies throughout those conflicts, we'll certainly see other very large defence businesses turn their attention to drones. So look, DroneShield's done extremely, extremely well. There's no doubt about it compared to where it was a few years ago. The key risk is always that they claim to have all these contracts, but the cashflow never comes through. That's not the case in DroneShield at all, but obviously you've had some insider selling. There was the well-publicised big selldown from the CEO and new CEO has come into the business, but it's never a good indicator from my standpoint when you've got management with very large positions selling down when they've got very large forecasts out there on the horizon.
So it's not a case that I think this business is terrible at all. It's just that I think it has to do really, really well and keep delivering these really large contracts to justify the price. It's a bit like Zip, as you know six months ago or so that all it'll take is one slip up and the share price can fall pretty rapidly. So I'm going to go sell on this and monitor it closely, look for competition building, but also look for an opportunity to buy in once things stabilise a bit.
Henry Jennings: (BUY) I guess this is one of the most heavily-traded retail stocks out there. You talk to the people at nabtrade and it's one of their biggest traded stocks, a bit like Fortescue. And I suspect we're seeing a little bit of tax loss selling as we head into the new financial year. The problem with DroneShield, it's a Jerry McGuire stock. Come on guys, show me the money really and truly show me the money and let's see the contracts. If it wasn't called DroneShield, do you think it would be $2.50 and capitalised at $3 billion? I'm not sure, but it does what it says on the box and everyone's keen on what it says on the box because we know that warfare has headed that way. But yeah, I just need to see some more contract. I do hold it in our small cap portfolio in a very small, very small position. And it's one that you can trade as all the retail traders do.
So it has its ups and downs, but I would really like to see more contracts, more big contracts. And then of course we've got a new CEO, as Michael says. We've got an ASIC investigation going on, which doesn't help in terms of what the previous CEO and the management did in terms of sell down with Oleg Vornik. And so that's obviously over the stock as well. So there's a lot of negatives, but you can't help fill in. They burrowed their way into the European defence sector, very much European it seems, and a lot of recurring contracts, which is good. So they're obviously doing something right, otherwise you wouldn't sign them up again.
And the technology is good and Oleg was a great guy to take it from nothing to something and the new CEO is more technology focused and he's been with the company a long time. So do have a buy on it, but it's a pretty wishy washy week buy, I have to say.
Henry Jennings: Yeah.
Anna Dadic: Okay. That's all we've got time for. Thanks to our guests, Michael Wayne and Henry Jennings. And thanks for watching Buy, Hold, Sell.
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