Decisions about interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve last week (and monetary policy moves by the ECB a week before) have done more to highlight the challenging cyclical outlook confronting the resources industry. Neither Europe nor the USA, together accounting for 28% of global output, shows signs of contributing the missing growth momentum vital to a cyclical improvement in commodity prices. There is ample evidence of the world’s principal central banks being unsure of the impact of their low interest rate policies but, for the foreseeable future, an outlook of low growth and large directional swings in exchange rates with negative implications for commodity prices appears on the cards. This is the theme in the “Where are we in the Cycle?” commentary in the PortfolioDirect investment report this week (VIEW LINK)



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