cycles

Amit Lodha

A question I am being asked a lot at the moment is: Where are we in this most atypical of economic cycles? I tend to think we are in the late cycle of the economic recovery, as suggested by data points such as the Fidelity Leading Indicator. Valuations only tell... Show More

Tim Toohey

Over the past month our leading indicators of the industrial cycle have shown signs of peaking. The real question is whether this suggests the industrial cycle is merely temporarily interrupted and rapid global growth will soon return; whether we are through the fastest phase of acceleration in the cycle, and... Show More

Patrick Poke

Howard Marks expressed concerns over a range of different assets and indicators in his last memo, which caused quite a media uproar. So he’s expanded and clarified some of his views. More interesting though, was his change of opinion on Bitcoin. His key quotes from this new memo are below. Show More

Callum Thomas

With the consensus slowly but surely shifting to expect rate hikes from the RBA, it's worth thinking about the impact of RBA hiking cycles on asset markets. One asset class we recently looked at is Australian credit spreads - we took a look at a few different drivers, and the... Show More

John Robertson

The PortfolioDirect resource sector macro portfolio model shows position reductions resulting in a continuing buildup in cash. The underlying macro analysis suggests that global growth momentum has not been enough to start a meaningful market re-balance leaving metal prices at the mercy of exchange rate movements https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/31607 and, consequently, at... Show More

John Robertson

“Less room for error” is the sombre message in the latest review of the world economy from the International Monetary Fund. Global growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017 show a very slight acceleration but, over repeated forecast rounds, the Fund’s outlook has become progressively less optimistic. For those investors looking... Show More

John Robertson

Decisions about interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve last week (and monetary policy moves by the ECB a week before) have done more to highlight the challenging cyclical outlook confronting the resources industry. Neither Europe nor the USA, together accounting for 28% of global output, shows signs of contributing... Show More

John Robertson

Global growth rates anchored at less than 4% imply that metal inventories continue to rise for the foreseeable future. There is no near term cyclical upturn. Growth and exchange rates have been moving in the wrong direction for a cyclical improvement in metal markets. This week’s PortfolioDirect investment report... Show More