cycles

Exchange Rates Still Dominant Resource Sector Influences

John Robertson

The PortfolioDirect resource sector macro portfolio model shows position reductions resulting in a continuing buildup in cash. The underlying macro analysis suggests that global growth momentum has not been enough to start a meaningful market re-balance leaving metal prices at the mercy of exchange rate movements https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/31607 and, consequently, at... Show More

Less Chance of a Raw Material Cycle

John Robertson

“Less room for error” is the sombre message in the latest review of the world economy from the International Monetary Fund. Global growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017 show a very slight acceleration but, over repeated forecast rounds, the Fund’s outlook has become progressively less optimistic. For those investors looking... Show More

Central Banks Doubt Growth Rebound

John Robertson

Decisions about interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve last week (and monetary policy moves by the ECB a week before) have done more to highlight the challenging cyclical outlook confronting the resources industry. Neither Europe nor the USA, together accounting for 28% of global output, shows signs of contributing... Show More

Cycle Duration Set to Lengthen

John Robertson

Global growth rates anchored at less than 4% imply that metal inventories continue to rise for the foreseeable future. There is no near term cyclical upturn. Growth and exchange rates have been moving in the wrong direction for a cyclical improvement in metal markets. This week’s PortfolioDirect investment report... Show More

Indicators of Weakening Metal Market Conditions

John Robertson

At the end of May, the gap between current metal prices and the historical benchmark against which PortfolioDirect judges cyclical positioning (see chart) had widened. The flow of metal usage statistics (see livewire from 7 days ago https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/27305 ) indicates a rising chance that usage growth in 2015 will be... Show More