Cyclical Price Guideposts Produce First Change

John Robertson


Metal price movements appear consistent with the evolution of historical cycles. The first upgrade to the cyclical positioning in over two years - albeit very minor - using the PortfolioDirect cyclical indicators was made this week. Using the prices of the six main daily traded base metals - aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc - the dark blue line in the chart shows, for the nine price cycles since 1960, the profile of the average adjustment following each cyclical price peak. The model dates the cycle shown in red as running from April 2011 to June 2014. The current cycle (shown in cyan) which began in July 2014 has been heavily influenced by a combination of slowing growth and a strengthening U.S. dollar. Since mid 2014, the metal market cyclical position has been characterised as ‘Trough Entry’ as prices have remained in downtrend with all but one of the PortfolioDirect cyclical guideposts - the international policy stance - flashing ‘red’ to indicate the absence of support. The absence of a global growth acceleration, ....(VIEW LINK)

2 topics

John Robertson is Chief Investment Strategist for PortfolioDirect a provider of resource sector investment stock ratings and portfolio strategies for mining and oil and gas investors. He has worked as a policy economist, corporate business...


No areas of expertise

I would like to

Only to be used for sending genuine email enquiries to the Contributor. Livewire Markets Pty Ltd reserves its right to take any legal or other appropriate action in relation to misuse of this service.

Personal Information Collection Statement
Your personal information will be passed to the Contributor and/or its authorised service provider to assist the Contributor to contact you about your investment enquiry. They are required not to use your information for any other purpose. Our privacy policy explains how we store personal information and how you may access, correct or complain about the handling of personal information.