Cyclical Price Guideposts Produce First Change

John Robertson

PortfolioDirect

Metal price movements appear consistent with the evolution of historical cycles. The first upgrade to the cyclical positioning in over two years - albeit very minor - using the PortfolioDirect cyclical indicators was made this week. Using the prices of the six main daily traded base metals - aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc - the dark blue line in the chart shows, for the nine price cycles since 1960, the profile of the average adjustment following each cyclical price peak. The model dates the cycle shown in red as running from April 2011 to June 2014. The current cycle (shown in cyan) which began in July 2014 has been heavily influenced by a combination of slowing growth and a strengthening U.S. dollar. Since mid 2014, the metal market cyclical position has been characterised as ‘Trough Entry’ as prices have remained in downtrend with all but one of the PortfolioDirect cyclical guideposts - the international policy stance - flashing ‘red’ to indicate the absence of support. The absence of a global growth acceleration, ....(VIEW LINK)


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John Robertson is Chief Investment Strategist for PortfolioDirect a provider of resource sector investment stock ratings and portfolio strategies for mining and oil and gas investors. He has worked as a policy economist, corporate business...

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