Exchange Rates Still Dominant Resource Sector Influences

The PortfolioDirect resource sector macro portfolio model shows position reductions resulting in a continuing buildup in cash. The underlying macro analysis suggests that global growth momentum has not been enough to start a meaningful market re-balance leaving metal prices at the mercy of exchange rate movements (VIEW LINK) and, consequently, at the risk of further weakness. Prices appear to be approaching a cyclical trough but the current metal price positioning remains very weak by historical standards. Gold prices have also been losing momentum making it hard to expect stock prices to sustain gains or maintain share price momentum. Backed by the assumption that equity markets are not yet strong enough to sustain price rises, trading opportunities to take advantage of bottom of the cycle leverage to specific events seem the preferable course to maximise returns. (VIEW LINK)